Global Nickel Supply Chain Shifts Create New Opportunities

Recording date: 28th March 2025
Nickel prices have rebounded to $16,500 per tonne ($7.50/lb), marking a 10% gain since the start of 2025. This recovery is primarily driven by significant price increases in Indonesian and Philippine ore, with Indonesian ore prices rising by $1.50-$2 per tonne (3-6%) in the latest week.
Industry experts consider the Indonesian ore price the key indicator for nickel's market direction this year. The price increases are cascading through the entire supply chain, affecting ore, nickel pig iron (NPI), and stainless steel prices, with several price points reaching levels only briefly seen in late 2024.
On the corporate front, Canada Nickel Company has established a RoyaltyCo holding a 1% royalty on most of its land package, enabling it to raise $8 million while maintaining 62% ownership. The company expects to publish six additional resource estimates by mid-year, potentially creating a resource endowment comparable to the Sudbury basin.
Other significant developments include Centaurus receiving a construction permit for its Brazilian nickel project, positioning it among the few projects that could begin production before 2030. EV Nickel reported promising drilling results from its Gemini North target, with one hole showing 280 meters of mineralization at 0.32% nickel. First Atlantic Nickel announced results from its Newfoundland project and a partnership with the Colorado School of Mines to investigate natural hydrogen potential.
Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange was recently fined £9.2 million ($11.9 million) for its handling of the 2022 nickel trading crisis, which resulted in $12 billion in canceled trades when prices spiked to nearly $100,000 per tonne.
Government policies are increasingly supporting critical minerals projects, particularly in Canada where the Ontario government announced a $500 million fund for critical minerals processing. This shifting landscape, coupled with tariff implementations and growing emphasis on secure supply chains, is creating potentially favorable conditions for nickel investments, especially for projects in stable jurisdictions with lower carbon footprints.
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