How Indonesia's Nickel Strategy Is Reshaping Global Markets

Recording date: 12th of January, 2025

Indonesia, controlling roughly two-thirds of global nickel supply, is positioned to significantly influence nickel prices in 2025 by actively managing its output. The country is expected to target prices in the $20,000-$21,000 per tonne range, according to Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby. This price target reflects Indonesia's strategic interests, as nickel and stainless steel exports have become crucial to its trade balance.

The nickel market shows promising growth prospects for 2025, with demand expected to increase by 8-10% overall, potentially reaching 20-25% growth in the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. Despite facing headwinds from U.S.-China trade tensions in 2024, the market still managed to grow by over 4%, outperforming most other base metals.

A notable market discrepancy has emerged over the past three years. While analysts reported cumulative surpluses of 600,000 tonnes, actual visible inventory increases were less than 100,000 tonnes, suggesting stronger underlying demand than recognized.

The geopolitical landscape is adding another dimension to the nickel market. Western governments are increasingly viewing nickel supply as a national security issue, pushing to reduce dependence on China. This shift is driving efforts to reshape supply chains and develop new sources of nickel outside of Indonesian control.

However, viable large-scale nickel projects outside Indonesia are scarce, particularly at current price levels. Most curtailed production would require prices above $22,000/tonne to restart, reinforcing Indonesia's market influence.

In this context, Canada Nickel's Timmins district projects are gaining attention as a potential significant non-Indonesian supply source. The company is advancing its flagship Crawford project toward a construction decision by late 2025, attracting increased interest from downstream stainless steel and alloy producers seeking supply diversification.

The market dynamics create opportunities for companies that can provide secure nickel supply from stable jurisdictions. End-users are increasingly looking to diversify their sourcing away from Indonesian dominance, driven by both supply security concerns and the growing demands of the EV battery sector.

As Selby notes, "2025 is year one of the ONEC era," suggesting a transformative period ahead for the nickel market. The combination of Indonesia's supply management, accelerating EV demand, and Western governments' push for supply chain security points to a potentially significant market shift, with particular opportunities for well-positioned projects in stable jurisdictions.

Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com/categories/commodities/nickel