Nickel Market Shows Resilience Despite Global Trade Tensions

Recording date: 22nd April 2025
Nickel prices have demonstrated remarkable recovery in recent months, rebounding from $14,000 to approximately $15,750 per ton following Trump's reversal of the Liberation Day tariffs. This represents a recovery of about two-thirds of the $2,800 per ton loss experienced when tariffs were initially announced.
The market's resilience is supported by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply front, Indonesian production slowed during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, while domestic smelters were already operating with low inventory levels. Although the Philippine rainy season is ending, the supply chain will take time to replenish, creating temporary constraints that support pricing. The benchmark 1.5% Philippine ore has reached its highest price level since October 2023.
Demand remains robust, particularly from China's stainless steel sector, which has grown at double-digit rates through the early part of the year—exceeding most analyst expectations. This strong performance, combined with anticipated growth in the electric vehicle sector, could potentially drive nickel prices toward $20,000 per ton by year-end, according to industry executive Mark Selby.
Nickel's critical mineral status positions it favorably in the current geopolitical environment. With countries seeking to secure essential material supply chains amid US-China tensions, nickel producers outside the Chinese-Indonesian supply network stand to benefit from increased government support and funding.
Recent industry developments further reinforce investment interest in the sector. The Metals Company has seen its stock price triple after announcing plans to apply for mining permits under existing US legislation. Turkish industrialist Robert Yildirim announced plans to invest approximately $2 billion in nickel, while companies like Ardea Resources, First Atlantic Nickel, and Talon Metals reported encouraging drilling results.
The convergence of different nickel product prices indicates a maturing market where products are increasingly valued based on their nickel content rather than product-specific factors, creating a more stable pricing environment for investors.
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