Ainslie Intelligence

Will Bitcoin long term holders surrender and sell their coins? With many signals suggesting a widespread capitulation has taken place, attention turns to whether a Bitcoin bottom is forming. CHARTS: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/will-long-term-btc-holders-surrender-/tabid/88/a/2801/default.aspx

Recent low gold prices have many scratching their heads amid rampant inflation and a war. However there are some key fundamental indicators that suggest this bottoming may be short lived and has Goldman Sachs calling for $2500 USD gold soon. ARTICLE & IMAGES MENTIONED: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/goldman-sachs-call-us-242500-gold-soon/tabid/88/a/2800/default.aspx

Billions of dollars worth of gold has been found perfectly preserved on the ocean floor. The legendary San Jose galleon shipwreck was first discovered in 2015, but new technology has uncovered up to 200 tonnes of gold, silver and emeralds. ARTICLE & LINKS: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/billions-worth-of-gold-found-in-shipwreck/tabid/88/a/2799/default.aspx https://opensea.io/collection/goldsilverpirates www.goldsilverstandard.com

Commodity prices are collapsing this week and the Australian dollar plunged to a 2yr low. With more interest rate hikes likely, it's ramping up mortgage repayments and the cost of living. Are gold and silver the long term safe haven? - ainsliebullion.com.au CHARTS AND IMAGES SHOWN: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/mortgages-and-commodities-under-pressure-ahead-of-recession/tabid/88/a/2798/default.aspx

In Australia, commentators are calling for the 2020s to be the new 1850s in "Gold Rush 2.0". And it’s lucky we have plenty of gold in the ground... as our reserves are only a 22hr flight away at the Bank of England! CHARTS AND IMAGES SHOWN: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-rush-2-0-and-australia-e2-80-99s-reserves-/tabid/88/a/2797/default.aspx LINKS MENTIONED:  https://www.rba.gov.au/qa/gold-holding.html

Only HODLers remain as the Bitcoin price has locked in one of the worst monthly performances in history, with renewed interest in safe storage options. CHARTS & DIAGRAMS MENTIONED: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/only-hodlers-remain-e2-80-a6/tabid/88/a/2796/default.aspx

Dramatic images of almost a hundred thousand protestors have broken out in Belgium as inflation has now crossed 10% in June. These civil uprisings have been mirrored worldwide this month as supply chains reach breaking point and the purchasing power of government issued fiat currencies continue to weaken. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/major-protests-in-belgium-against-the-rising-cost-of-living/tabid/88/a/2795/default.aspx

We look at the FY22 year for Australia and some of the shocking data out of the broader global economy for the second half. We briefly discuss going forward too.. Read article here https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/fy22-in-review/tabid/88/a/2794/default.aspx

With China, India, Brazil and South Africa wondering if they will be next in line to suffer sanctions, the BRICS nations are forming a viable alternative to the US Dollar for international settlements. Speaking at the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday, Putin stated “The matter of creating the international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries is under review.” This is the most formalised movement towards a global environment that functions largely without the US Dollar. Saudi Arabia has been in talks for most of the year to sell Oil denominated in Chinese Yuan, and Nigeria is already making those trades. https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/brics-nations-forming-usd-alternative/tabid/88/a/2793/default.aspx

Another shocker on Wall Street last night with heavy falls across the board. The only thing positive was the USD and some commodities, and gold was pretty much flat but up in AUD terms.  So what happened this time? https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/earnings-flag-more-pain-to-come/tabid/88/a/2792/default.aspx

Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin are at all-time lows, signalling potential floor formation. Many are even trading at levels with single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels. So, it begs the question, is this the bottom?

In a Capitol Hill hearing Powell was asked yesterday: “Would you say that the war in Ukrain is the primary driver of inflation in America?” Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the ware in Ukraine broke out.” The President speaking at the White House later revealed that Congress knew that sanctions would lead to higher gas prices.” Fuel costs bleed into every aspect of consumption leading to greater inflation and reduced purchasing power of currencies. The only question is when precious metals will pop in this highly inflationary environment.

With 7 days left for the first half of this year, the S&P500 is posting its second worst H1 in history behind a little crash you may have heard of called the Great Depression. US Treasuries go back to 1788 to see a worse H1. We look at where the traditional ‘60/40 portfolio’ sits and compare to gold…

Yesterday we heard the RBA chief assure us "I don't see a recession on the horizon”. As we have seen repeatedly since the GFC, central banks have deployed ‘words’ as much as rates and QE in an effort to control markets. Commonly called ‘jawboning’, is that what Mr Lowe is trying on us, is it true, and if not what does a recession mean?

The Bitcoin market has reeled from a massive deleveraging event this week, falling below the 2017 US$20k ATH. Both on-chain DeFi markets and off-chain entities deleveraged. Exchanges, lenders, and hedge funds were rendered insolvent, illiquid, or liquidated.

There are some analysts that think the only thing you need to look at to know where the price of gold and silver are going is the weekly Commitment of Traders report that presents all the positions of the big players on COMEX futures. It just got “wildly bullish”…

Another night of deep red on Wall Street last night and another night of gold and silver price strength in the face of it. Markets were rocked by the surprise rate hike of 50bps by the Swiss National Bank but more particularly the expected sell off of their mountain of US shares, particularly the ultra vulnerable FAANGs they’ve gone heavy on. The NASDAQ ended the session down 4.1%. But it wasn’t the Swiss alone. More broadly we are seeing a set up mirroring the huge gold rallies of the 70’s and 2000’s.

The US Fed has a new yarn to spin you. After months and months of trying to convince the market that inflation was just ‘transitory’ despite all the data, Fed Chair Powell was last night, with a straight face, telling us: “There is no sign of a broader slowdown in the economy that I can see.” Meeting market expectations they hiked rates by a still huge 75bps, the biggest hike since 1994. We discuss why shares rallied and what’s ahead…

Its Monday morning so lets keep the words to a minimum and check out some compelling charts for gold and silver and where they sit right now.

The reason our mantra is “Balance your wealth in an unbalanced world” is because in such unprecedented times it should be expected that experts can have such divergent theses on ‘what’s next’. On Monday we spoke to the thesis of Raoul Pal and others of recession, disinflation, Fed easing and risk-on. Today we talk to Crescat’s thesis of recession, sustained inflation, sustained rate hikes, and commodities boom.