Albion Financial Group - Business Conversations

This conference call covered the economic landscape of late 2023, including labor market trends, 2024 recession outlook, inflation & prices, the housing market, interest rates & monetary policy, cash alternatives, U.S. deficits, relations with China, equity markets, and more! Listen below for the isolated audio of the conference call: Audio-only recording of Albion Financial Group’s November 15, 2023 conference call. The post November 2023 – Conference Call Recording appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

July 13, 2023 Conference Call This conversation covered 2023’s economic landscape so far, including interest rate hikes, bank failures, the labor market, the national debt ceiling, inflation trends, a looming recession, Artificial Intelligence, generational demographic shift, and more! Click here to see the video of the call hosted by Zoom. The post Conference Call Recording – July 13, 2023 appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Elon Musk’s biographer Ashlee Vance was interviewed this week by Albion Partner Doug Wells on his KPCW radio program Mountain Money on the subject of Vance’s new book “When the Heavens Went on Sale” Doug Wells interviews Ashlee Vance on KPCW’s ‘Mountain Money’ Ashlee Vance is an American business columnist and author, best known for his biography of Elon Musk, titled “Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future” which was released in 2015. The biography traces Musk’s journey from his difficult upbringing in South Africa to his ascent to the pinnacle of the global business world. The book provides an outline of the experiences that have made Musk the man he is today, and how he has always dreamed big. Vance’s new book called “When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach” tells the remarkable, unfolding story of a frenzied low Earth orbit “land grab.” Through his trademark immersive reporting, Vance follows four pioneering companies—Astra, Firefly, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab—as they build new space systems and attempt to launch rockets and satellites into orbit by the thousands. While the public fixated on the space tourism being driven by Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson, these new companies arrived with a different set of goals: to make rocket and satellite launches fast and cheap, thereby opening Earth’s lower orbit for business—and setting it up as the next playing field for humankind’s technological evolution. The post Elon Musk Biographer Speaks with Doug Wells About Latest Book appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Conference Call Panelists – John Bird, Jason Ware, Liz Bernhard, and Michael Kessler Click on the link below to watch the video and transcript of Albion’s November 15, 2022 Conference Call. conference call – video recording Or listen to the isolated audio from the call below: The post Conference Call Recording – November 15, 2022 appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Panelists from left to right: John Bird CEO, Jason Ware CIO, and Patrick Lundergan Wealth Advisor. Whether or not you attended our conference call earlier this week, here is your chance to watch a recording of our panelists’ discussion. They cover a broad range of topics including stock & bond valuation, oil & gas prices, recession & inflation concerns, Roth conversion strategies, blockchain technology and more. Thank you to those who attended and asked questions during the call. Your participation and feedback inform the quality of these communications. We look forward to this year’s second conference call planned for mid-November. Listen to the audio version of the May conference call here or subscribe to Albion Financial Group in your favorite podcasting app!

Weekly-Market-Recap-FINAL-20220506Download Stocks and bonds moved lower last week in choppy trading after the Fed enacted the first 50bp rate hike in more than 20 years (May of 2000 was the last one). The market’s initial reaction was positive, as investors expressed relief that a 75bp hike appeared to be off the table for the June meeting, and that the initial pace of Fed balance sheet reduction (aka Quantitative Tightening, or “QT”) would be somewhat slower than feared. Most major US stock indices rallied ~3% in afternoon trading on Wednesday following the Fed’s announcement and accompanying press conference. The optimism was short-lived, however. An hour before equity markets opened on Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a disappointing productivity number and higher-than-expected unit labor cost data for Q1, sending bond yields sharply higher as investors worried anew about inflation. Stocks had nowhere to go but lower, and the selloff quickly became self-reinforcing. In the end, most major US benchmarks were down modestly on the week. As has been the case throughout much of 2022, energy stocks and some defensives (especially utilities) outperformed, while most growth/tech sectors lagged. Small caps and international benchmarks also underperformed, as they have for much of the year. Finally, the carnage continues in bond markets, as rising yields pushed prices lower once again last week. Average yields on US investment grade corporates are now at 12-year highs, as are rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe! Chart of the Week – US Fed Funds Target Rate (Lower Bound)

Weekly Market Recap – April, 15 2022 [PDF]Download It was another tough week for stocks as bond yields continued to rise. Growth stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, sending the Nasdaq down 2.6% in a holiday-shortened week. Cyclical sectors fared better thanks to solid economic data, with materials (+0.7%), industrials (+0.4%), and energy (+0.3%) all finishing in positive territory. Small caps also finished slightly higher. Meanwhile, the Treasury yield curve steepened considerably, with 2s10s gaining 19bp to finish at +38bp after having been inverted just two weeks prior. Credit spreads widened slightly, magnifying the price declines in high quality corporates and sending the Bloomberg US Corporate Index to its lowest level of the year. The short week also saw a surge in energy prices. Oil gained more than $8/barrel, while natural gas rocketed higher to finish at $7.30/MMBtu, an all-time record high. There were several positive data points regarding the economy last week. March retail sales were solid despite very high gasoline prices, industrial production rose more than expected, the Empire Manufacturing Survey came in well ahead of expectations, jobless claims remained low, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index experienced a strong rebound. Finally, core CPI cooled slightly in March data, but other inflation metrics remain hot: Headline CPI was +1.2% m/m and reached +8.5% y/y Core CPI (ex food & energy) was +0.3% m/m and reached +6.5% y/y Headline PPI was +1.4% m/m and reached +11.2% y/y Core PPI (ex food & energy) was +1.0% m/m and reached +9.2% y/y This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe! The post Weekly Market Recap appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Weekly Market Recap – April 8, 2022 [PDF]Download It was another tough week for stocks and bonds, prompted by hawkish commentary on Monday from FOMC member Lael Brainard regarding the potential pace of Fed balance sheet reduction. That was followed up on Wednesday by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes from March, which exacerbated investor concerns. The result was an abrupt reversal in the flattening trend that had gripped the Treasury market this year as the curve pivoted to bear steepening: 2y yields finished higher by 5bp, while 10y yields jumped 32bp, pushing the 2s10s curve back to +19bp by Friday’s close. See the Chart of the Week for a 2s10s time series. Equities fell as a result, with long-dated growth stocks once again bearing the brunt of the selling pressure. In a return of 2022’s familiar pattern, defensive sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare, and real estate) plus energy outperformed, while other cyclicals and especially tech shares were weaker. Small caps generally fared worse than large caps, with the Russell 2000 now trailing the S&P 500 by more than 5% YTD. International stocks also finished lower on the week. Commodities were mixed, with oil (WTI) finishing below $100/barrel for the second straight week while natural gas rose to an all-time high on Thursday before finishing a hair lower on Friday. Non-energy commodities also finished higher on the week. Apart from the FOMC, most economic news last week was positive: services PMIs from S&P Global and ISM remain firmly in expansion territory, initial jobless claims fell, and consumer credit surged in fresh February data. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe! The post Weekly Market Recap appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Weekly Market Recap March 18 – 25, 2022Download Stocks finished higher for the second straight week despite surging bond yields. The energy sector led the way with a 7.4% return on the back of a sharp rebound in oil prices, while all other sectors besides healthcare posted positive returns on the week. Small caps lagged the rally and finished slightly lower. International stocks posted smaller gains than the US, with Chinese equities temporarily range-bound after a dramatic reversal the week before. Treasury yields rose significantly last week, particularly in the front end as increasingly bearish rates forecasts were published by sell side economists. A note from Citi on Friday predicted that the Fed would enact four consecutive 50bp hikes this year, and that the terminal Fed Funds rate would reach 3.5-3.75%, well above the ~2.8% rate currently implied by the Fed’s “dot plot”. Meanwhile, credit spreads narrowed for the second straight week, in line with the improvement in equities. Oil prices rose by more than $9/barrel as an Iran nuclear deal looked increasingly unlikely in the near term, and Yemeni rebels stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabian Aramco facilities. Non-energy commodities also finished higher on the week. In economic news, mortgage applications and new home sales fell as mortgage rates rose, weekly jobless claims hit fresh pandemic lows, durable goods orders fell more than expected in February, and S&P’s US Manufacturing and Services PMIs exceeded expectations in preliminary March data. Overall, incoming data point to a still-strong economy with a resilient consumer, despite signs that rates are beginning to have an impact on the pace of transaction activity in housing. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly Market Recap – December 17, 2021 [PDF]Download Markets took a risk-off tone last week as investors grappled with the twin concerns of rising covid-19 case counts and an inflation-fighting Fed. As was widely expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced an increase in the pace of asset purchase tapering, and the updated “dot plot” indicated that FOMC members expect 3 rate hikes by the end of 2022. Traditional defensive sectors registered gains on the week, including healthcare, staples, real estate, and utilities. Meanwhile, cyclicals and tech finished lower, as did small and midcap stocks. International markets were also down on the week. Bond markets rallied as the Treasury yield curve flattened once again. While 2y yields were mostly stable, 10y yields fell 8bp to finish at 1.40%, while 30y yields ended the week 7bp lower at 1.81%. Credit spreads widened moderately, resulting in more muted price gains for corporates. Most commodity prices slipped a bit last week on concerns that omicron could impact short-term demand. Oil fell by a little less than $1/barrel. Other economic news was mixed last week. Retail sales for November missed consensus estimates, jobless claims remained low, housing starts and new residential building permits gained strength, and inflation data (PPI and import/export prices) continue to run hotter than expected. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly Market Recap – December 10, 2021Download Last week was a strong one for risk assets as it became increasingly clear that while highly contagious, the omicron variant is very likely to cause a lower rate of serious disease and death than previous strains of the coronavirus. Most bond prices fell as the Treasury curve experienced significant bear steepening: 2y yields rose 6bp, 10y yields were up 14bp, and 30y yield finished higher by 21bp. Credit spreads compressed, particularly in high yield, echoing the move higher in equities. Commodity prices also moved higher last week, with oil gaining more than $5/barrel. Economic news was mostly positive: * Weekly unemployment claims fell below pre-pandemic levels * Consumer price inflation, while high, was in line with consensus estimates * U of Michigan consumer sentiment rose in preliminary December data This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly Market Recap – December 3, 2021Download Risk assets were whipsawed last week by shifting sentiment around omicron and US monetarily policy. While it is increasingly clear that omicron is already widespread in the US, there is growing optimism that existing vaccines will provide protection against severe disease and death, AND that omicron may be more likely to cause milder cases of covid-19 in the first place. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pivot towards inflation fighting has cooled some investors’ appetite for stocks, sending most US benchmarks lower. Traditional defensive sectors held up the best last week, with only utilities and real estate registering small gains. Treasury investors responded to Powell’s hawkish turn by flattening the yield curve, under the assumption that more aggressive inflation-fighting in the near term should mean lower inflation and bond yields in the long term. Fed Fund futures are now pricing in ~2.5 rate hikes by the end of 2022. Meanwhile, investment grade credit spreads widened slightly to 95bp, equaling their widest level of the year, while high yield spreads moved in the opposite direction after having widened dramatically when omicron was first reported the day after Thanksgiving. The BLS released its monthly payroll report. The change in nonfarm payrolls of +210k missed expectations, but all other aspects of the report were encouraging: * U-3 Unemployment fell to 4.2% * U-6 Underemployment fell to 7.8% * Labor Force Participation rose to 61.8% * Y/Y Growth in Avg Hourly Earnings cooled to 4.8% This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly Market Recap – November 26, 2021Download News of the omicron variant sent stocks tumbling on Friday, pushing all major equity indices into the red for the week. The Nasdaq was the worst performer, as concerns about rising rates had dented longer-duration growth stocks even before Friday’s move. Small and midcap stocks underperformed large caps, while international stock underperformed the US. In a classic flight-to-safety trade, US Treasuries rallied as yields fell and the curve flattened. Credit spreads widened, particularly in high yield where bond prices fell in sympathy with equities. Investment grade corporate bonds and high quality munis were close to flat on the week thanks to the offsetting moves in rates and spreads. Commodity prices plunged on Friday, particularly oil which endured its largest oneday selloff since the early days of the pandemic last year. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell more than $10/barrel to close at $68.15, while non-energy commodities were off a more modest ~2% in aggregate. See the Chart of the Week for a time series of oil prices. Apart from concerns regarding the omicron variant, economic news was mostly positive last week. Initial jobless claims fell below 200k for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose slightly more than expected in the final November print. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

From November 16th, 2021 To watch the Zoom video recording, please click on the below button: Watch the zoom video To listen to the audio only version, please click play below: Skip to a section of the call: 00:02:27 – John Bird 00:07:54 – Albion’s ESG Portfolio offering 00:12:28 – Jason Ware on the Economy & Markets in 2021 00:19:08 – Looking Ahead to 2022 00:22:15 – Liz Bernhard 00:26:48 – Year-End Planning Items 00:35:03 – Q&A 00:58:49 – John Bird Closing Remarks

Weekly Market Recap November 12th, 2021Download Most US equity indices finished the week slightly lower, due in large part to a higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for the month of October. Core inflation (ex food and energy) rose to 4.6% y/y, while headline inflation exceeded 6% for the first time since 1990. See the Chart of the Week for a time series of headline and core CPI. Sector performance was mixed: basic materials (+2.6%) significantly outperformed, and four other sectors (healthcare, industrials, financials, and tech) finished with positive returns on the week. Other sectors finished lower on the week, with energy (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary (-3.2%) trailing by the widest margin. International stocks were mixed, with MSCI’s developed market index easing lower while its emerging markets index posted solid gains due to strength in Chinese equities. Bond yields moved higher in the wake of the inflation print, particularly in the front end and belly of the curve: 2y and 10y yields both rose 11bp on the week, while 30y yields were up a more modest 4bp. Credit spreads were mostly stable, passing the price declines in Treasuries through to higher quality corporate bonds. Commodity markets were mixed last week. Energy prices eased lower, while prices rose on many other commodities, including wheat, corn, copper, and gold. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly-Market-Recap November 8th, 2021Download Tapering is upon us at last. In a move that surprised no one, the US Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would begin tapering its monthly purchases of Treasuries and MBS by approximately $15 billion per month, beginning immediately. Given the previous run rate of $120 billion per month, it would take 8 months for the tapering process to finish if done in linear fashion, meaning that the Fed’s asset purchase program would reach $0 in new purchases in June of 2022. In other news, Friday’s payroll report exceeded expectations for job growth with 531k nonfarm payrolls added. The unemployment rate sank to 4.6% while underemployment dropped to 8.3%, both of which are new pandemic lows. US stocks rallied in response to the news flow, with all three major US large cap indices finishing the week at all-time record highs. Small and midcap stocks were up even more sharply following the jobs report. International equities were mixed, with D/M higher while E/M in aggregate was flat. Bond markets wobbled in the immediate aftermath of the tapering announcement but soon joined stocks in rally mode, with yields falling across the curve. Credit spreads remained stable as investment grade corporates clawed their way back very close to breakeven on the year. Inflation-sensitive assets were mixed last week: oil prices fell, gold prices rose, and bitcoin finished lower. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly Market Recap – October 29, 2021Download Large cap technology stocks led the market higher last week thanks in large part to stellar earnings results from tech bellwethers like Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft. The rally pushed the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs on the final day of October, with the S&P and Nasdaq both delivering a return of over 7% for the month. Cyclicals lagged somewhat as inflation concerns eased and energy prices edged lower. Meanwhile, international stocks were mixed, with developed markets close to flat while emerging markets were once again pulled lower by a selloff in Chinese equities. Growth stocks also got a boost from falling Treasury yields last week. The curve flattened considerably, with 2y yields hitting 50bp (+5bp on the week) while 10y yields fell 8bp and 30y yields were lower by 14bp. Fed funds futures markets are now pricing in a >75% chance of a rate hike occurring by June of 2022, much earlier than current consensus expectations from sell side economists. Not all of the news was good last week, however. Q3 GDP came in lower than expected at +2.0% annualized, while Apple and Amazon both missed consensus earnings estimates, citing severe supply chain constraints that impacted revenues as well as input cost inflation that put pressure on operating margins. Starbucks also cited a 600bp impact to operating margins from rising wages and other inflationary pressures. As a result of these and other reports, sell side analysts have already begun lowering their earnings estimates for the balance of the year. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe!

Weekly Market Recap – October 22, 2021Download News regarding the pandemic was positive last week. Covid-19 case counts continued to fall in the US and globally, and on Thursday the FDA and CDC jointly announced new recommendations that made nearly 100 million Americans immediately eligible for a vaccine booster shot. All Americans aged 65 or older that originally received a 2-course regimen of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines are eligible, as are those aged 18-64 that either live in a long-term care facility, have underlying medical conditions that increase risk of severe disease, or live or work in settings that carry a high risk of virus transmission. In addition, all Americans aged 18 or older that received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine at least two months ago are eligible for a booster immediately. Meanwhile, Q3 earnings season continued with a slew of strong results. With nearly a quarter of S&P 500 companies now having reported Q3 numbers, 84% of the results so far have beaten consensus earnings estimates, while 75% have beaten on top line revenues. Against this positive backdrop for the economy, stocks rose for the 3rd week in a row, with the S&P 500 and the Dow closing at new all-time highs on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Rates moved higher, particularly on the front end of the curve as markets priced in a higher probability of a rate hike by the end of next year. Lastly, energy and other commodity prices rose, sending the Bloomberg Commodity Index to its highest level in more than six years. See the Chart of the Week for a time series. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe! The post Weekly Market Recap appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Weekly Market Recap – October 15, 2021Download Equities rallied around the world last week as Q3 earnings season got underway, with several of the large US banks reporting strong trading results and record M&A deal flow. Gains in large cap stocks pushed the S&P and Dow back to within 1.5% of their all-time highs from early September, while the Nasdaq remains roughly 3% off of its highs. International markets also finished higher, but remain well behind the US on a YTD basis. Bond prices rose last week thanks to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve. 2y yields rose to 39 basis points as investors priced in a higher probability of multiple rate hikes occurring at some point in 2022/23, while 10y and 30y yields fell as longer-term inflation fears eased slightly. Investment grade credit spreads were stable. Oil prices rose again last week, with US crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate closing at a fresh 7-year high of $82.28/barrel. Natural gas prices eased back slightly but remain very high relative to recent years. Inflation data was mixed last week, with CPI slightly exceeding consensus expectations while PPI was lower than feared. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell for the second straight week after rising throughout September. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index softened slightly in the preliminary October reading, with weakness in both current conditions and future expectations. On the positive side, however, 5-10 year inflation expectations eased lower and appear to be well anchored around price stability. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe! The post Weekly Market Recap appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Weekly Market Recap – October 8, 2021Download Last week’s biggest news was Senate Republicans offering (and Democrats accepting) an agreement to raise the US national debt ceiling by $480 billion, eliminating the near term risk of a technical default on US Treasuries and giving Democrats time to pass a budget reconciliation bill with a new debt ceiling limit that would alleviate the risk until sometime after the 2022 midterm elections. Stocks rallied on the news, with cyclicals outperforming while defensives lagged. The energy sector was a standpoint performer with a 5.0% return on the week. International stocks were higher, particularly emerging markets which benefitted from a strong rebound in Chinese equities on Thursday and Friday. Bond yields also moved higher in the wake of the debt ceiling agreement. 10y Treasuries finished the week at 1.61%, the highest level since early June. IG spreads were largely unchanged while HY spreads tightened. Energy prices rose again last week. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate finished at a 7-year high, just shy of $80/barrel. The move in crude sent gasoline prices to fresh multi-year highs as well. Meanwhile, natural gas hit a 14-year high on Tuesday before easing back in the latter half of the week. Finally, the monthly payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics missed expectations with 194k nonfarm payrolls added versus consensus estimates of 500k, calling into question whether the Fed will announce asset purchase tapering at its upcoming meeting in early November. This audio version of the Weekly Market Recap can be found in your favorite podcasting app. Search for “Albion Financial Group” and subscribe! The post Weekly Market Recap appeared first on Albion Financial Group.