Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast

Scott and Adam close the book on the Premier League season by grading every one of their preseason over/under predictions, then hand out a data-driven team of the season. The format is simple: 20 teams, bottom to top, against the points totals from the preseason betting markets. The headline result is that both hosts finished ahead of the coin flip, Adam at 13 of 20 and Scott at 12, which feels respectable until you sit with the ones that got away. With this we will start to turn our attention away from 2025/26 and into the summer transfer season. ⁠Over/Under on the Premier League⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Scott and Adam process Arsenal's penalty shootout defeat to PSG in the Champions League Final, a loss that stings without feeling like an indictment of the performance. The episode opens 24 hours on, with both hosts landing somewhere closer to proud than devastated. Adam keeps coming back to Gabriel, who skied the decisive penalty and deserved that ending less than almost anyone, and to the sense that a shootout loss tells you very little about a team. Scott frames it against the alternative: this was not Inter getting blown out in last year's final. Arsenal were in this one. It played out almost exactly as he predicted, a tight game decided by a handful of moments, right on the knife edge, and this time the edge fell PSG's way. The match breakdown is the heart of the episode, and both hosts land on the same read. Arsenal made a conscious choice to cede possession, sit in a medium-low block, and use PSG's strengths against them. It worked. Scott notes that outside the penalty, PSG managed only four chances above ten percent xG, and through 90 minutes the non-penalty xG was roughly 0.8 to 0.6 in Arsenal's favor, with the two biggest chances of the game both falling to Havertz. The argument both hosts make is that the 72-28 possession split and lopsided shot count are not evidence of a problem, they are evidence of a plan. PSG had no central access, no zone 14 touches, and visibly ran out of ideas against a team built to deny exactly that. As Adam puts it, there is a difference between not threatening because you cannot and not threatening because you are not trying to, and that distinction is the whole game. Doing this to one of the two or three best attacks in the world is an accomplishment, not a failure. From there the conversation turns to the officiating, which both hosts felt was unusually prominent. The referee twice blew his whistle before Arsenal could take a corner, a pointed and demonstrative call you almost never see outside a blowout, and the run of ticky-tack fouls and Saka's yellow consistently punished whichever side was out of possession, which by design was Arsenal. On the two major decisions, they agree the Mosquera penalty was correct if soft, and that the Madueke no-call on Nuno Mendes in extra time was a far bigger miss. Scott makes the point he keeps returning to: a no-call is a call, it shaped the game in PSG's favor just as surely as a whistle would have shaped it in Arsenal's, and being afraid to make the call is the real failing. The substitutions get a full airing. The Timber-for-Mosquera change at the hour was the easy one to back. Bringing Odegaard off for Gyokeres made sense for transitional speed and tired legs, but Adam thinks pulling that much technical quality out of midfield hurt Arsenal's ability to build, a pattern they have seen before this season. The bigger sticking point is Saka. Both hosts understand the fitness logic given his calf, but Saka is the moments player, the one you want available for the four chances a game like this offers and for the shootout itself. The counterpoint is that Enrique pulled Dembele, Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha too, so both teams reached penalties without their best takers. On the shootout, the hosts dig into the margins, from Safonov reading the scouting report to sit middle for Rice, to Eze's hesitation-filled, twisted run-up that produced a poor strike, to the general debate over the stutter-step approach and whether it is worth the loss of balance unless you take penalties constantly like Lewandowski or Jorginho. PSG won both coin tosses, took the shootout at their own end, and chose to go second. Arsenal missed two. They close on the long view. It is almost 20 years to the day since the 2006 final loss, and the parallels are there, but the key difference is that 2006 marked the end of a chapter while this team is squarely in its prime. Over the next three to five years, this is a side that should be among the best in Europe with more cracks at the trophy to come. Lewis-Skelly, not yet 20, and a 24-year-old Saka anchor a group with time on its side. PSG will likely be back too, and neither host would mind another go at them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Scott and Adam soak in Arsenal's Premier League title and turn their attention to the Champions League Final against PSG. The episode opens with both hosts reflecting on the trophy lift and the emotional weight of finally getting over the line. After years of near-misses, eighth-place finishes, and a fan base conditioned to expect heartbreak, this one hits different. Scott traces his own 15-season journey as an Arsenal supporter and the stretch where a title felt unrealistic given the financial gap with Manchester City. Adam picks up the thread from his own entry point during the Emery transition, walking through the slow build under Arteta from top-four hopefuls to genuine contenders to champions. The conversation zeroes in on what defined this season. Scott highlights a remarkable consistency stat: Arsenal were the only team in the league to never be outperformed by more than one expected goal in any single match, while doing it to opponents 20 times. Both hosts push back on the narratives that followed Arsenal all year, from questions about Jorginho's quality to skepticism about the team's attacking output and Arteta's in-game management. The verdict: this was a team that won ugly when it had to and never stopped believing, even through the late wobble against Bournemouth and City. The second half pivots to the Champions League Final against PSG. Scott and Adam break down last season's semifinal, where Donnarumma's saves and a couple of fortunate PSG finishes proved the difference. They identify PSG's pressing intensity and high turnover creation as the primary threat, but also point to vulnerabilities when Hakimi and Nuno Mendes push high and leave space behind. The lineup discussion runs through every position: Calafiori gets the nod at left back for his ability to create moments, Mosquera slots in at right back with Timber's fitness uncertain, and the midfield debate between Lewis-Skelly, Eze, and Zubimendi alongside Rice and Odegaard takes up the most real estate. Trossard earns the left wing start on big-game pedigree. Both hosts predict a tight, low-scoring affair, with Scott floating a nervy 1-0 or a 1-1 that goes to extra time, and Adam going 2-1 Arsenal. The dream ending: a set-piece goal from a defender. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Scott and Adam process a deflating loss to Bournemouth and answer the questions that you provided. If you are a premium subscriber, you can listen to an ad-free version through Substack or you can add to your preferred podcast app through the personal RSS feed.  The conversation starts with the lineup. Neither host saw the announcement until moments before kickoff, and both were caught off guard by the absences of Odegaard, Saka, and Timber — none of whom even made the bench. With a midfield built around Rice and Zubimendi and Havertz dropped into a striker-adjacent role, the left side chemistry with Martinelli never clicked, and Arsenal struggled to generate open-play xG as a result. The first Bournemouth goal gets a close look: a defensive lapse in the space behind the right back, Ben White caught too central, and a Saliba clearance that agonizingly found the back of the net anyway. Both-things-can-be-true verdict: an avoidable situation that still required a bounce to go wrong. Despite the loss, Scott and Adam push back on doom narratives. Arsenal led the league in big chances in this match week, and have scored more three-goal games than any other side since December. The vibes around this team, both agree, are genuinely different from the dread-filled early kickoffs of the Emery era. The Q&A covers Havertz’s best position when the attack is at full strength, and closes with a summer transfer discussion: what type of forward does Arsenal actually need, and which profile fits the left wing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Scott and Adam are back to break down Arsenal's League Cup Final loss to Manchester City. They push back on the post-match doom, arguing Arsenal's low-tempo approach wasn't a failure; it was a deliberate game plan built around missing Odegaard, Eze, and Martinelli. Without your A, B, and C options for getting between the lines, you adapt. City executed better on the day, but this wasn't a tactical masterclass dismantling. They also zoom out: Arsenal won the two matches that actually mattered that week, and the League Cup was always the fourth priority. Nobody's consoling themselves with a Carabao Cup if the Premier League and Champions League are still on the table. One loss, the fourth of the season and the first by more than a goal, doesn't change the trajectory of a title race. The episode closes with a look ahead, covering injury cover options, Saka's potential midfield role, Odegaard's return timeline, and what rotation might look like for Southampton and Sporting. The international break, annoying as it always is, might be exactly what this squad needs heading into the run-in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott return after a Christmas break for a high-level discussion on Arsenal's recent form, dismissing finishing concerns, spotlighting key players, and previewing the massive upcoming clash with Aston Villa. They dive into why the "wasteful finishing" narrative is shallow, highlighting forced own goals, strong shooting thwarted by great saves, and elite underlying process. Conversations on Viktor Gyökeres' adaptation, Bukayo Saka's world-class creation and shot volume despite low-end product, the league-wide reality of "uncomfortable" wins, and optimism for a statement result against third-placed Villa to close out 2025. If you are interested in an ad-free experience, you can upgrade at Cannonstats.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott break down Arsenal’s kick in the balls loss against Aston Villa. It is a need catharsis and a nice way to get back to some analytical thinking about the match. The podcast goes through the second-guessing decisions that could have been made, the match key moments, hits on the individual performances and looks ahead to some chances for rotation. If you are a premium subscriber, you can listen to an ad-free version through Substack or you can add to your preferred podcast app through the personal RSS feed. One of the other topics referenced was Gyokeres who has a tendency to not always run out every situation, which Adam saw in the film while he was at Sporting. ⁠Film Study: Putting Arsenal's striker links head-to-head⁠ If you enjoyed this podcast and want to leave a review or rating, that would be much appreciated. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott break down Arsenal’s draw against Chelsea, breaking down the big talking points, pre-red card Arsenal being outplayed? Post red card Arsenal getting a goal back but just playing decent? A bit on some of the individual performances and some big picture talk. It’s a full podcast and the start of the busy season for Arsenal. If you want to have an ad-free version of the pod,cast you can upgrade to a premium subscription at CannonStats.com Part 1 focuses on the period before the red card, Part 2 looks at the second half, the final part is a bit of a big picture look at things. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott break down Arsenal’s win against Tottenham, revel in the losses of Liverpool and Manchester City, do a mini power rankings and then look ahead to Chelsea and Bayern Munich. It’s a packed podcast after one of the more delightful weekends of the season. Part 1 focuses on the match with Tottenham, Part 2 looks at Liverpool and Manchester City’s matches, the final part is looking ahead for the rest of the season, and the key matches Arsenal have in the next seven days. If you haven’t yet, you can help us out by taking the quick survey below: Give us feedback Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Adam and Scott break down Arsenal’s draw away at Sunderland, hitting the main points of the match, the individual performances, and have some big picture views of the Premier League after the weekend's action. If you are a premium subscriber, you can listen to an ad-free version through Substack (also you can add to your preferred podcast app) on CannonStats.com Part 1 focuses on the match; it is a tale of two halves performance for Arsenal. Arsenal start slowly again and here it hurts them. In the second half Arsenal showed great resilience to fight back and end up conceding late as they ran out of gas. One of the big topics here is the use of the substitutes and what could have or should have been done. Part 2 hits on the individual performances here, looking at Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka, Martin Zubimendi, and Eberechi Eze. The Eze chat goes well with the latest post on the newsletter here looking at how he is playing the “10” role. The final part is a bigger picture view of how our opinions have changed on these two teams, plus a view into Manchester City vs Liverpool. If you have any feedback, please share it with us. Also, you can help us out by leaving a review. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of Cannon Stats Podcast, Scott and Adam discuss Arsenal’s 9th straight win against Burnley. They also hit on how Eberechi Eze has interpreted the role of right 8/10 for Arsenal and how that compares to Martin Odegaard. Things finish up with a look at when we should start thinking about Arsenal as one of the best defenses of all time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of Cannon Stats Podcast, Scott and Adam dive headfirst into Arsenal’s blistering 4-0 demolition of Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. This was a match that shattered expectations of a dour, Simeone-style snoozefest. The lads break down Arsenal’s dominant performance, from Zubimendi’s masterclass to Martinelli’s resurgence. They tackle media gripes about set-piece “ruining football,” and preview a tricky trip to Crystal Palace. Here is the link to the Ryan O'Hanlon article that was mentioned in the podcast. https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/46662849/set-pieces-ruining-premier-league-helping-arsenal-throw-ins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The mailbag episode is a staple of the international break but this time we decided to spice it up asking for you all to not only give your questions but also your hottest takes. For this we had to agree or disagree, no middle ground and it led to some tough position taking. This was real fun episode and worth a listen. The first half of the episode is the hot takes, and the second half is the more traditional mailbag. Thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Love the pod? Subscribe on your favorite platform, rate/review, and join the Discord for debates. Feedback? Reply to our newsletter or hit us on social media. Yeehaw! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There was a great discussion on the Cannon Stats discord (you should join, it is fun and free) about Bukayo Saka’s cumulative minutes and what that means for his future. It was so good that Adam and Scott decided to go even longer on that topic in today’s podcast. In this meta-focused episode, Scott and Adam shake off international break boredom with high-level chats on Arsenal’s stars. They dive into Bukayo Saka’s heavy minute load and career longevity, unpack the randomness of injuries (with fresh Arteta quotes), debate if Martin Ødegaard is “injury-prone,” and reflect on Mikel Arteta hitting his 300th match amid lingering fan discontent. Expect tire metaphors, RAF pilot stories, and optimistic vibes about Arsenal’s title push—despite the banter from rivals. https://www.cannonstats.com/p/saka-and-the-30k-minute-cliffOn the Saka minutes, https://www.cannonstats.com/p/saka-and-the-30k-minute-cliff He’s been among the highest played players at each age, but he’s also been among the best players, and the best players play a lot. What this might mean is that given that the general trend is that players have about 30-35k peak league minutes in them that we are at about the halfway point with Saka. There are exceptions to this and we can hope that Saka is that but this is where things are at for right now. Below here are the main quotes from Arteta on injuries that we mentioned on the podcast. Areta on predicting injuries: “There is a lot of randomness in an injury that we don’t know,” said Arteta. “Sometimes I’ve been with a player that I wanted to put the finger into something that it was very clear. “And then I realised three months later that he had a problem with his wife or he didn’t sleep or his kid [didn’t sleep] for three days, and then he got injured, and I say: ‘I’ve been scratching my head for one month trying to do that, and then I found out that this was the real reason’. “There are a lot of factors we’re trying to control, dominate and be aware of what we can predict. But unfortunately, this is sport, football and life, and it’s not that easy. Arteta on preventing injuries: “There is a push when people are trying to accelerate. So to replicate that in training, especially when a player is playing every three days, is very, very difficult. “The thing is that you have to replicate all the previous actions. You have to replicate the motion, the stress level, your cortisol level, your mental state, the results. “It’s about replicating the context. I can replicate to go and say I predict that these shares are going to go up three per cent. That’s great. But would you put the money in real or would you go online and do it? It’s very different.” “For example, when Gabi Magalhaes gets injured, a lot of people say he comes from Brazil and does that,” said Arteta. “But Gabi had to chase 50 metres backwards chasing against Adama Traore. If, instead of Adama Traore, that was Emile Smith Rowe, with all respect, probably he doesn’t pull his hamstring. Love the pod? Subscribe on your fave platform, rate/review, and join the Discord for debates. Feedback? Reply to our newsletter or hit us on social media. Yeehaw! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Cannon Stats podcast is back and the mood in Arsenal land is positive with Arsenal closing the gap on Liverpool while slaying two bogey teams in the process. Things are looking up for Arsenal, while they are looking down for Liverpool who are hitting their first patch of adversity under Arne Slot. Adam and Scott are together here talking about the standout performances from Arsenal’s matches against Newcastle and Olympiacos. There is a lot of good overlap and positives to take from both games. The second part of the episode looks ahead to what might be the softest part of Arsenal’s schedule all season after they made it through the rough opening set of fixtures. Arsenal’s Next five is West Ham (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Burnley (A), and Sunderland (A) before the November international break. There are no easy matches in the Premier League, but this might be the least challenging overall. This is also a chance to pick up points on what Arsenal did last season, where they managed just 8 points from these five, losing twice and drawing one. What makes this especially tantalizing is that this “easy” run corresponds with Liverpool and Manchester City looking at some challenging fixtures. The next five matches are shaping up as a major opportunity for Arsenal to potentially take the lead in the Premier League, and if things break right, maybe even open up a bit of a gap. That all starts this weekend with Arsenal hosting West Ham and their new manager. If you enjoy this episode, please give us a rating and a review as it is always something that helps more people be able to find our show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Everyone is talking about it and asking about it, where you go in the Arsenal world it seems like you can’t escape hearing that Arsenal have been too conservative or that the team is playing with the handbrake on too much right now. When these things happen, that makes for a good opportunity for an examination if this actually holds water and that is exactly what Scott and Adam do here in the latest Cannon Stats podcast. The podcast focuses on the City Lineup and a discussion of if they set up wrong. That leads into the Merino/Rice midfield question and if that grouping works for Arsenal or not. The last major question goes into a more high-level view if the way that Arsenal play under Arteta is calibrated correctly or not. Here is the post that Adam wrote, looking deeper into the Rice Merino midfield questions, that is well worth your time. ⁠You're not being told the full story about Merino-Rice⁠⁠ Here is the link to the post Scott talked about on if Defense wins Championships. Does Defence Actually Win Titles? The second half of the podcast touches on what we can learn from Arsenal’s League Cup win over Port Vale and then looks ahead to the weekend matchup against Newcastle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Adam goes solo, breaking down week 1 of the Champions League. Going deep on Arsenal's win against a tough Athletic Club and hitting on all of the other matches from Tuesday and Wednesday, Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of the Cannon Stats Podcast, Scott and Adam chat about the news of a new but familiar manager at Arsenal’s next opponent, the rotation that will be needed as the schedule flips into the twice a week cadence, and then looks ahead to the Champions League. The first segment of the podcast looks ahead to Arsenal’s match against Nottingham Forest. The preparation has been thrown into disarray as they have sacked Nuno Espírito Santo this week and replaced him with Ange Postecoglou. We look at how much we expect them to change in the short period between the change and how Arsenal might react to this. In the second segment, we look ahead to the return of the Champions League, looking at the high-level goals and then into more details about Arsenal’s first opponent, Athletic Club. Last there is a discussion about how Arsenal and Arteta will approach this part of the schedule now that the team has stocked up on depth. Things end with a few quick-fire questions. If you enjoy the podcast, be sure to leave a like and review, be sure to add us on Spotify or to your favorite podcasting app. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this special bonus episode of the Cannon Stats Podcast, Scott has the pleasure of being joined by Clive Palmer, a familiar voice from the Arsenal Vision Podcast, to dissect Arsenal’s 2023/24 Premier League season and the issue that the team had dropping points with 14 total draws. The episode hits on an overview of the draws, the key themes and patterns that emerged, whether this is a systemic issue or a one-off, and what Arsenal have done this summer that can make sure it doesn’t repeat. This podcast is a continuation of a nice back-and-forth that Clive and I have had, where he really helped push me and gave me feedback to look into this issue. That turned into this post, which was published in August: ⁠https://www.cannonstats.com/p/learning-from-all-of-arsenals-draws⁠ The timing for this second look was perfect because we can now see some of what has come from the lessons learned by the club and what potential solutions the strengthened squad presents. The discussion begins by analyzing the opponents in Arsenal’s 14 draws, which included five against ‘Big Six’ teams and five against low-block sides. Looking at if the tactical setup is a factor in these specific matchups and if there are changes required. The timing of the draws is the next area of focus; six draws in the first half of the season (two with red cards) and eight in the second half of the season leads to the question on if squad depth or injuries played a significant role in the total number. A major focus is Arsenal’s struggle to hold leads, with nine of the 14 draws coming after taking the lead. The team dropped 21 points from winning positions, the seventh-most in the Premier League in the 24/25 season and tied for their worst under Mikel Arteta and in Arsenal’s record in the Premier League. Arsenal converted only 67% of leads into wins last season, compared to 79% across Arteta’s tenure, prompting questions about whether this was a one-off or a symptom of deeper issues. The episode also examines Arsenal’s late-game struggles, particularly in the final 15 minutes of matches where they drew. In the first 75 minutes, Arsenal boasted the third-best attack, with the best defense; their attack dropped to 10th in the closing stages, despite maintaining the league’s best defense. This raises questions about whether injuries and limited squad depth were the primary culprits or if tactical and mental factors contributed. In the final segment, the conversation shifts to whether Arsenal’s summer signings have addressed these issues. Clive shares his thoughts on what he has seen so far this season, as Arsenal have tried tactical tweaks, and whether early signs in the 2025/26 season’s first three matches show progress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of the Cannon Stats podcast, Scott and Adam get together to chat about the end of the Transfer window, talking about the winners and the losers, recapping the big six business, oh and we talk about the actual match that happened as well. The first part of the podcast focuses on the trip to Anfield. How we reacted to the lineup, are we second-guessing anything that the team did. Then we talk about how our view of the two main title challengers has changed after this data point. If you missed it, here is the stuff we wrote after the match. https://www.cannonstats.com/p/first-thoughts-liverpool-a https://www.cannonstats.com/p/liverpool-vs-arsenal-the-debrief I came into this match wanting to measure Arsenal up against Liverpool and how the teams looked as they are set for what hopefully will be a season-long battle for the Premier League title. Arsenal’s performance at Anfield seemed to further divide the multiple camps among club supporters, if that was possible. The club left with a 1-0 loss and sit third in the Premier League headed into the first international break of the season (hooray!) Next, we look at the overall business done by Arsenal in the transfer window. Rating the incomings and talking about the strategy and if the team filled all the holes. Then it is time for the outgoings before doing a big picture view. Adam’s post on the transfer window is a must-read and gives more detail on teams that we don’t hit in the podcast as well. https://www.cannonstats.com/p/who-won-the-premier-leagues-historic Last, we break down the big winners and losers from the non-big six clubs, going through which clubs impressed and which clubs left us wanting more. The final item is going through and ranking the big six clubs for the overall business done. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices