It's A Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky

The 2026 midterm elections are just 29 days away—and Ryan Girdusky is looking beyond the polls to the numbers that could actually determine who wins. On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan breaks down two critical indicators heading into Election Day: campaign spending and voter registration. Republicans are pouring money into key Senate, House, and gubernatorial races, while Democrats are showing surprising momentum among newly registered voters in several important states. Ryan examines the numbers in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and other battlegrounds—and explains where Republicans and Democrats may have reasons to worry. Then, Ryan dives into the explosive Cornell University sexual assault case that has become a national political controversy. He examines the allegations, competing accounts, Cornell’s response, the reopened investigation, and why politicians including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kathy Hochul and Letitia James are now weighing in. Plus, Ryan answers listener questions about why affluent suburban voters have shifted toward Democrats, Bill Maher’s political evolution, and whether party registration matters in American elections EMAIL RYAN See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Girdusky breaks down the political warning signs facing Republicans with just 32 days until the midterm elections. Ryan examines polling and voter sentiment surrounding President Donald Trump, traditional Republican voters, the economy, inflation, healthcare costs, immigration, artificial intelligence, taxes, Social Security, and the growing appeal of economic populism. He argues that Republicans in traditionally safe red states and districts can no longer assume victory—and need to campaign aggressively and address the economic concerns affecting voters. Ryan also makes the case for what he views as the major accomplishments of the Trump administration and Republican Congress, including actions on the southern border, immigration, crime, DEI, prescription drug costs, manufacturing, energy, taxes, and the child tax credit. Plus, Ryan answers listener questions about the Texas Senate race, James Talarico, Ken Paxton, black voter turnout in Texas, John Cornyn voters, and whether Republicans could face a repeat of past Senate election upsets. Subscribe to It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky for polling analysis, election data, political trends, and the numbers shaping the 2026 midterm elections. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Girdusky sits down with Nothing Left author Evan Barker for a wide-ranging conversation about the 2026 midterm elections, the battle for the U.S. Senate and the Democrats already positioning themselves for the 2028 presidential race. Barker discusses Democratic confidence heading into the midterms and examines competitive Senate races in states including Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan and Georgia. The conversation also explores the appeal of economic populism, working-class voters and what could determine whether Democrats can make gains in traditionally Republican territory.  Then Ryan and Evan turn toward 2028: Is Kamala Harris preparing another presidential campaign? Could Jon Ossoff emerge as a national contender? Where do JB Pritzker, Rahm Emanuel, AOC and other potential candidates fit into a Democratic Party divided between progressive activists, traditional Democrats and working-class voters? Barker also explains why he believes Harris could run again, while discussing the challenges she could face during a prolonged Democratic primary campaign.  Plus, Evan discusses his New York Times bestselling book Nothing Left and what his firsthand experience inside Democratic politics taught him about the direction of the party.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is a massive Democratic blue wave really coming in the 2026 midterm elections—or are the headlines getting ahead of the data? Ryan Girdusky breaks down the latest 2026 midterm polling, the congressional map, Senate races, and the first early-voting numbers as Election Day approaches. Ryan examines predictions of huge Democratic gains and explains why political polarization makes nationwide electoral waves different from those of previous generations. He looks at Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and other key states, including what early turnout may—and may not—tell us about Republican and Democratic enthusiasm. Plus, Ryan digs into the battle for the Senate, including Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa; discusses Nate Silver’s analysis of Democratic gains in red states; and explains why turnout among lower-propensity voters could matter enormously this November. Later, Ryan answers listener questions about Nikole Hannah-Jones and education, affordability and housing, the Trump tax cuts, immigration and former Border Patrol official Greg Bovino. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Girdusky is joined by Jack Posobiec for a deep dive into one of the most disturbing and controversial true-crime cases of 1970s San Francisco: the Zebra murders. Ryan and Jack retrace the killing spree that terrorized San Francisco, the victims and survivors, the formation of the Zebra Task Force, the controversial police response known as Operation Zebra, and the informant who ultimately helped investigators identify suspects. They also examine the racial and political tensions surrounding San Francisco during the era and discuss why the Zebra murders never became as culturally famous as the Zodiac Killer case. Pasted text Pasted text Plus, Posobiec discusses his book Unhumans: Socialist Revolution, historical political violence, media portrayals of crime, and what he believes Americans can learn from the unrest of the 1960s and 1970s. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Are Republicans beginning to distance themselves from President Donald Trump as the 2026 midterm elections approach? On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky, Ryan examines what he sees as a late Republican pivot away from Trump as GOP candidates confront voter concerns over the Iran war, rising costs, data centers and the president’s political standing. He looks at Republican Senate and House candidates who have broken with Trump on key issues and explains what the polling could mean for competitive races across the country. Ryan also digs into the enormous amounts of campaign money pouring into Texas and competitive House races, including the Senate contest involving Ken Paxton and James Talarico, and explains why Republicans are spending heavily to defend territory that previously leaned strongly Republican. Plus, Ryan takes aim at Nikole Hannah-Jones’ reflections on her daughter’s education, examining her decision to enroll her daughter in a struggling New York City public school and what Ryan believes the story reveals about education policy, school performance and parental responsibility. Finally, Ryan answers listener questions about Tulsi Gabbard and 2028, possible live midterm election-night coverage, the ideal podcast length, and his disagreements with Clay Travis and Buck Sexton. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Are Democrats really headed for a massive 2026 midterm election wave, or are the polls overstating the political environment? Ryan Girdusky sits down with Quantus Insights founder and lead pollster Jason Corley for a deep dive into the latest 2026 election polling, the generic congressional ballot, and some of the biggest Senate and governor races across the country. Corley discusses polling showing a sizable Democratic advantage nationally while explaining why response bias, turnout models and the composition of the electorate could change what the political landscape ultimately looks like in November. They break down Susan Collins and the Maine Senate race, Minnesota, Katie Hobbs and the Arizona governor's race, and the Georgia Senate contest, along with what current polling is showing about Black, Hispanic and young voters. Corley says his polling shows Hispanic voters moving back toward Democrats compared with 2024, while voters ages 18–29 are showing a substantial shift to the left. Plus, Jason explains how professional political polling actually works, why high-quality polls can cost thousands of dollars, how voter files and online panels are used, and why polling response rates make accurate election surveys increasingly difficult. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 2026 midterm elections are approaching, and Ryan Girdusky breaks down the latest polling to examine where Republicans are showing potential bright spots despite Democrats holding a sizable advantage in national generic-ballot polling. Ryan digs into Senate, gubernatorial and congressional polling in Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, New York, Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas, examining why individual races can diverge sharply from the national political environment. He also looks at what current polling says is motivating Democratic and Republican voters heading into November. Plus, Ryan examines the latest economic warning signs after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, its first increase since 2023, as inflation remains elevated. He discusses how dramatically the cost of food, vehicles, rent, insurance and other everyday expenses has changed—and why affordability could remain a major concern for voters. Ryan also discusses demographic tensions in Los Angeles and closes the show with Ask Me Anything, answering listener questions about rural voters, Texas campaign spending and Utah politics. EMAIL RYAN See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The 2026 midterms are just weeks away—and Ryan Girdusky says the latest polling contains major warning signs for Republicans. On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan breaks down new polling on the generic congressional ballot, President Donald Trump’s approval rating, the economy, immigration, and the issues shaping the battle for control of Congress. He also examines the impact of soaring oil and gas prices and why the cost of living could become one of the defining issues of the midterm elections. Plus, Ryan discusses Gavin Newsom’s surprising comments about Kamala Harris and the 2028 presidential race, the legal fight over the Trump administration’s public-charge immigration policy, and why India’s growing relationships with Iran, Russia, and the BRICS nations deserve more attention in Washington. Ryan also weighs in on the controversy surrounding Texas Republican Bo French before answering listener questions about political betting markets, Alberta’s separatist movement, and the political differences between Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman. EMAIL RYAN See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky, Ryan breaks down the massive wave of Republican money pouring into the 2026 midterm elections and what the spending reveals about the races the GOP believes it must win. The battle for Texas takes center stage as Republican groups and Elon Musk's America PAC reportedly prepare major investments while Ken Paxton faces James Talarico in a crucial U.S. Senate contest. Ryan examines new polling in Texas, the enormous spending battle taking shape, and why Republicans appear determined to prevent the Lone Star State from becoming a major Democratic breakthrough. Ryan then follows the money across the country, looking at Republican offensive and defensive investments in Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine, Iowa, Florida and key House districts. He explains what these spending decisions may reveal about internal polling and which Senate and House races could ultimately determine control of Congress. Plus, Ryan digs into the latest polling from Minnesota, Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Iowa, along with troubling national generic-ballot numbers for Republicans. He explains where the GOP may still have opportunities, where Democrats currently hold the advantage, and whether an enormous influx of campaign cash can change the political environment before Election Day. Finally, Ryan answers listener questions about the shift from “Merry Christmas” to “Happy Holidays,” voter-registration trends, the Texas Senate runoff, and whether political books like Regime Change can be trusted. EMAIL RYAN See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Girdusky breaks down the biggest moments from the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas and what they reveal about the future of the GOP. Ryan argues that Vance’s convention performance looked increasingly like an introduction to the party’s next leader, while Marco Rubio again indicated he has no plans to run for president in 2028. But Ryan sees one potential major challenger: Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz is beginning to separate himself from Vance and Trump on one of the biggest emerging political issues—artificial intelligence regulation. Ryan explains why Cruz’s call for greater AI safeguards could become a defining issue in a future Republican presidential primary. Plus, Ryan reacts to President Trump’s proposal to give American adults $5,000 if Republicans retain Congress, including the potential trillion-dollar price tag and inflation implications. And who was the convention’s breakout star? Ryan makes the case for Rep. Brandon Gill, whose opening speech contrasted the Trump and Biden eras and generated one of the convention’s standout moments. EMAIL RYAN See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, Kim Phelan shares the deeply personal story of her father, Kenneth Phelan, a New York City firefighter who died responding to the World Trade Center on 9/11. Kenneth wasn't originally supposed to work that day. He had taken time off months earlier to attend his daughter's high-school ring day and owed another firefighter a tour. On the morning of September 11, 2001, he went to work—made lunches for his four children, said goodbye to his family, and never came home. Kim recounts what it was like being a high-school student in New York City as the Twin Towers were attacked, initially worrying about an aunt who worked at the World Trade Center before realizing her own father was among the first responders who had gone into the towers. According to the account her family received, Kenneth went into the building, came back out, and then went back inside to help others. His remains were never recovered. She also opens up about the side of 9/11 that the public rarely sees: waiting for a father who would never come home, comforting a little brother asking when his dad would return, growing up without him, and watching the milestones he should have been there to experience. Twenty-five years later, Kim wants people to remember that those killed on September 11 weren't simply names on a memorial. They were fathers, mothers, husbands, wives, friends, coworkers, firefighters, police officers, and ordinary Americans living ordinary lives. For Kim, her father's legacy continues through the family he left behind—including children who followed the family's tradition of public service. And at the 9/11 Museum, another piece of Kenneth Phelan's story lives on through a special Mets jacket honoring the diehard New York sports fan. Never forget. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On September 11, 2001, Linda Martin went to work at the World Trade Center expecting an ordinary day. Instead, she found herself trapped high inside the North Tower after American Airlines Flight 11 struck the building. In this powerful firsthand account, Linda takes Ryan through the morning of 9/11—from feeling the building shift beneath her and seeing smoke fill her floor to learning that the stairwells appeared blocked. Port Authority employees Frank De Martini and Pablo Ortiz eventually helped clear an escape route, allowing Linda and her coworkers to begin the long journey down the tower. Linda says she would not be alive without them. After making it out of the World Trade Center complex, Linda recalls seeing police officers and firefighters running, turning around and seeing the enormous cloud from the collapsing South Tower, and realizing she couldn't outrun it. She grabbed onto a fire truck and thought she was going to die. Linda also describes the mysterious NYPD officer who found her in the darkness and debris, the emotional phone call that finally let her family know she was alive, and the trauma and survivor's guilt that followed in the months and years after September 11. Twenty-five years later, Linda shares her story so a new generation can understand not only the horror of September 11, but also the courage, sacrifice, and humanity of the people who helped one another that day. Never forget. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky is joined by VoteHub Head of Data Science Zachary Donnini to break down the polling misses shaking up the 2026 election cycle. Why did progressive and DSA-aligned candidates dramatically underperform expectations in Wisconsin and Michigan? Ryan and Zach examine the surge in primary turnout, the growing divide between highly educated urban progressives and white working-class voters, and whether pollsters are once again struggling to accurately measure the electorate. They also dig into Black voter turnout, why Democrats are increasingly focused on electability, the limitations facing far-left candidates outside major cities, and what the latest numbers could mean for Republicans trying to hold the House and Senate in November. Could a small polling error in states like Texas, Ohio, Iowa or Maine determine control of Congress? And are the warning signs from the Rust Belt pointing toward a much different 2026 midterm election than the national polls suggest? Ryan and Zach break down the numbers—and what both parties should be watching as November approaches. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Girdusky has fresh political intel — and the 2028 Republican presidential race may already be heating up. On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan breaks down signs that Sen. Ted Cruz is positioning himself for another run for president, including repeated trips to Iowa, outreach surrounding a potential 2028 campaign, and Cruz’s increasingly public criticism of Vice President JD Vance. Ryan examines Cruz’s potential strategy, his effort to position himself as an alternative to Vance, and why he’s skeptical that Cruz has learned the right lessons from his 2016 presidential campaign. But first, Ryan shares some fascinating inside information from a private dinner with Democratic political consultants. They discuss internal polling ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, a massive 2024 Democratic ad campaign against Donald Trump that may have actually helped Trump, the changing Jewish vote, and why some Democrats are already preparing for the possibility of Marco Rubio running for president. Ryan also weighs in on New York City’s move to restrict AI in classrooms, the city’s plans to bring eighth graders to the 9/11 Memorial, new immigration numbers under President Trump, and the latest polling from Iowa and New York. He also looks ahead to Kamala Harris and the 2028 Democratic primary and explains why organized labor could become increasingly important as artificial intelligence transforms the American workforce. Plus, in Ask Me Anything, Ryan shares deeply personal memories of New York City in the days after September 11, 2001, including his mother’s experience at the World Trade Center and what he remembers about the missing-person posters, uncertainty, fear, and grief that followed the attacks. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jasmine Crockett isn't falling in line behind James Talarico — and Ryan Girdusky explains why that could matter in an increasingly competitive Texas Senate race. On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky, Ryan breaks down the growing tensions inside both parties in Texas. Crockett is refusing to campaign for Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico after their bitter primary battle, while Republican Sen. John Cornyn isn't rushing to help Ken Paxton either. Ryan examines the voters both former candidates could influence, the controversial past comments now being used against Talarico, and why a relatively small group of Trump voters could ultimately determine whether Paxton wins the Senate seat. Plus, Ryan turns to Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed faces new scrutiny as his race against Republican Mike Rogers remains highly competitive. Ryan analyzes the importance of black and Jewish voters, Democratic defections and Van Jones' criticism of El-Sayed. RIP Wendell Berry EMAIL RYAN See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

House Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Andy Harris joins Ryan Girdusky for a wide-ranging conversation about America’s $40 trillion national debt, the future of Social Security and Medicare, the rise of Democratic Socialists, the 2026 midterm elections, and what comes next for the Republican Party after President Trump. Harris explains why the Freedom Caucus continues to push Republicans to rein in federal spending, discusses the pressure lawmakers face from party leadership and the White House, and warns that interest on the national debt is becoming an increasingly serious threat to America’s fiscal future. The conversation also turns to Social Security reform, including whether Republicans and Democrats could reach a bipartisan agreement involving changes to the retirement age and payroll taxes. Plus, Harris weighs in on the growing influence of DSA-aligned Democrats, AOC’s national political prospects, voter ID, the future of the House Freedom Caucus, health care costs, and how conservatives can shape the Republican Party heading toward 2028. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Meta has agreed to a massive $17.1 billion settlement over allegations involving child privacy, consumer protection, social media addiction, and the impact of its platforms on young users. Could the agreement fundamentally change Facebook, Instagram—and eventually the entire social media industry? Ryan Girdusky is joined by John Ehrett, counsel at Lex Politica, to break down the landmark Meta settlement and what it could mean for Big Tech. They examine new restrictions aimed at protecting users under 18, including limits on daily platform use, changes to algorithmic feeds, restrictions on beauty filters, limits on notifications during school hours, and overnight safeguards. But Meta may only be the beginning. Ryan and John discuss why TikTok, YouTube and Snapchat could face similar pressure, the growing legal challenges against social media companies, and why states are increasingly taking the lead in regulating Big Tech. They also dive into Section 230—the powerful legal protection that has helped shield internet platforms from liability for user-generated content—and whether Meta's decision to settle could reduce momentum in Congress for sweeping Section 230 reform. Plus: Why did Mark Zuckerberg's Meta agree to such a massive settlement? Could continuing lawsuits threaten Big Tech's enormous investments in artificial intelligence? And are AI companies headed toward the same regulatory backlash that Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms are facing today? Ryan Girdusky and John Ehrett break down what could become a turning point in the battle over Big Tech, social media, child safety and online privacy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new Pennsylvania poll is flashing warning signs for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections — and some of the most surprising numbers involve Donald Trump, Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman. On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the latest Pennsylvania polling and what it could tell us about the political environment heading into November. Democratic voters currently show a significant enthusiasm advantage, Josh Shapiro holds a commanding lead in the governor’s race, and Trump’s approval numbers reveal potential weakness with some of his own 2024 voters. Then there’s John Fetterman. Ryan examines the Pennsylvania senator’s extraordinary political coalition as Fetterman struggles with voters in his own party while receiving surprisingly strong favorable ratings from Republicans and independents. Could Fetterman eventually be forced to run as an independent — or even switch parties? Ryan also digs into voter attitudes toward the economy, inflation, immigration, health care and AI data centers, including overwhelming opposition to new data center construction among young Pennsylvania voters. Plus, Ryan examines the Supreme Court’s preliminary decision involving the Trump administration’s mail-in ballot initiative and what it could mean as voting gets underway. Later, Republican congressional candidate Mike Lipetri joins the show to discuss one of the GOP’s biggest pickup opportunities of 2026: New York’s 3rd Congressional District. The Long Island and Queens district backed Donald Trump in 2024 but is currently represented by Democrat Tom Suozzi. Lipetri explains how Republicans plan to win crossover Democrats, appeal to diverse communities, address affordability and housing, and compete in one of the country’s most closely watched House races. Ryan closes the show with Ask Me Anything, tackling Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky, political polling scams, Medicare for All, America’s doctor shortage and the future of health care. EMAIL RYAN   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ryan Girdusky takes a hard look at America’s marijuana legalization experiment as new data raises questions about cannabis addiction, high-potency THC, and the long-term consequences of widespread recreational marijuana use. With cannabis use rising among American adults, Ryan examines reported increases in cannabis use disorder and asks whether the country was too quick to embrace the idea that marijuana is harmless. Should HHS and RFK Jr. take a closer look at the potential health and psychological effects of increasingly potent THC products? Then, Ryan breaks down major political developments heading into the 2026 midterm elections. The Trump administration is overseeing a dramatic decline in immigrant naturalizations, potentially putting the United States on pace for its lowest naturalization levels in decades. Ryan explains why that shift could have major political consequences. Plus, Sen. Ted Cruz is jumping into the Texas Senate battle to help Republican Ken Paxton as Democrat James Talarico builds a massive fundraising advantage. Ryan also explains why Libertarian candidates could become an overlooked factor in key Senate races — and how Democrats could potentially use a strategy reminiscent of the 2006 midterms to their advantage. Finally, Ryan answers listener questions on breaking into political campaigns, why Democratic primary polling has struggled with some races, whether moderate Democrats will support socialist candidates, and what America’s changing immigration patterns could mean for the future. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.