Julius Baer International - Investment Insights

In the final episode of our Investment Insights series, Dawn Li Wan Po is joined my Marco Stroili to look back on what has been a turbulent first quarter for markets. Marco starts by outlining what our key calls for 2022 were at the start of the year when looking towards what we expected to be more self-sustaining markets. However, following the events of Q1 – namely the Russian invasion of Ukraine, central bank rate normalisation, and sustained high inflation – markets got off to a rockier start than first expected. Dawn then takes a deeper look at the actions of the central banks in the face of robust economic activity, strengthening labour markets and, perhaps most importantly, sustained inflation growth. Next, Marco explains the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, which primarily focused on commodity prices and investor sentiment. Finally, Marco provides an overview of the key calls made by Julius Baer’s research teams across Fixed Income and Equities. As a reminder, this was our final episode in the series as we will be joining our global Beyond Markets podcast from April. If you’d like to continue hearing our insights on what is happening in markets, please do subscribe to Beyond Markets on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or your preferred podcast provider.

Some news on the podcast itself is that we are merging with our sister-podcast at Julius Baer, Beyond Markets, from April. If you'd like to continue hearing from our experts on what's happening in global markets, please do subscribe to Beyond Markets on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

In the latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by Thanh Cung from the UK Portfolio Management desk, where they discuss their thoughts on the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They outline the particularly high volatility in commodities over the past week before discussing the mixed reaction in developed market equities and the flows into safe-haven assets. Finally, Mark and Thanh both outline what they've been doing in their advisory and discretionary portfolios respectively in response to the ongoing conflict.

In this episode, Felicity Selcoe from the UK Advisory desk is joined by Portfolio Manager, Aneka Beneby to discuss the tumultuous start to the year for global markets. They discuss persisting inflation, both from a policy standpoint and reaction from global businesses, the geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine and the uncertainty this is causing in commodity markets, and finally our current portfolio positioning.

In our latest Investment Insights podcast Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) is joined by Dawn Li Wan Po (Senior Discretionary Portfolio Manager) to discuss recent market volatility. The two share our thoughts on how to navigate current market turbulence, the current issues between Russia and Ukraine and how these are affecting financial markets and our assessment of how the earnings season has gone so far.

The first episode of our Investment Insights podcast for 2022 begins with a review of the major market moves we have seen so far this year conducted by Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Marco Stroili (Senior Investment Adviser). Topics discussed include the current market anxiety around the rising interest rate environment along with our view on its likely effects on equity markets, a discussion on our expectations for the current earnings season and the current backdrop and challenges for China. Mark concludes with a summary of our Market Outlook’s key messages to clients.

Our final Investment Insights podcast for 2021 begins with a review of the trends we have seen this year conducted by Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Ed Raymond (Head of Portfolio Management). Topics discussed include the macroeconomic and inflation backdrop, asset class summaries and the themes that have affected both advisory and discretionary portfolios. The conversation also includes our outlook for 2022. Ed discusses how discretionary portfolios are positioned for the year ahead along with the key risks that he anticipates. Mark concludes with a summary of the main messages his team are communicating to clients within advisory portfolios.

In this week’s episode of our Investment Insights podcast, Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Thanh Cung (Discretionary Portfolio Manager) discuss our views in relation to the recent US Federal Reserve communication on transitory inflation and what this means for the reduction of bond purchases and interest rate tightening. Next, Thanh moves onto the US labour market and how the last payrolls number may not tell the whole picture on the employment backdrop. Finally, the two look closer at the opportunities that have emerged from the market sell-off (and subsequent recovery) in relation to the omicron covid variant and the Federal Reserve’s recent communications. Mark concludes with some comments on small cap stocks and why the recent volatility in our view presents a buying opportunity in this space.

The latest episode of our Investment Insights podcast begins with a discussion between Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Marco Stroili (Senior Investment Adviser) on the market’s reaction to the reappointment of Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman for a second term and linked to this our view on the US inflationary backdrop. The two then move on to the news that Europe is experiencing the highest level of new coronavirus cases since January and the economic impact we predict this to have. Finally, Julius Baer’s Eurozone country equity rating was introduced last week, so Marco provides an explanation as to why we recommend overweighting equity markets in France and Italy.

In our latest episode, Felicity Selcoe, a regular on the podcast, is joined by a newcomer to the team and impact investing specialist, Dr Nicolas Baumgartner. This particular episode was recorded from Glasgow at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, and covers the main headlines from the conference, an overview of what impact investing is, and investment themes related to the conference outcomes and greenwashing.

In our latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined again by Senior Portfolio Manager, Dawn Li Wan Po, to discuss what’s happening in markets. Today the conversation starts Q3 earnings season, which is proving to be much better than initially expected – particularly after the previous two outstanding quarters. Data which is coming in below expectations, however, is the Chinese GDP statistics and we provide some context as to why this is and where the investment opportunities lie within China. We then move on to discuss where they would be looking for yield in the fixed income space – highlighting that now is probably not the time for investors to be chasing yield at the expense of credit quality. And finally, with inflation concerns continuing to dominate headlines, we look closer to home and what the Bank of England is indicating when it comes to interest rates.

In this episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by his colleague on the UK Advisory Desk, Marco Stroili, to discuss what is happening in today's markets. They first touch on the equity markets, which seem to be in 'wait and see' mode currently, and the contributing factors to this - notably the Fed's indication of tapering asset purchases. However, while volatility may continue into October and beyond, the long-term outlook may not be so gloomy. Mark and Marco then move onto the causes of the volatility seen in Sterling, the recent news of the rise in the US debt ceiling, inflation pressures and, finally, a preview of the Q3 earnings season.

In our latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by Dawn Li Wan Po, a senior portfolio manager in the UK, to discuss the investment themes we like best for our end-of-year Market Outlook, namely healthy living, future mobility and the circular economy. In their discussion, Mark and Dawn also highlight the current energy crunch, which continues to dominate headlines, whether the fallout surrounding Evergrande Group represents the Chinese market as a whole, and recent news out of the world's central banks on interest rates and asset purchase tapering.

In the latest episode, Mark is joined again by Thanh where they discuss the recent announcement from the European Central Bank of the tapering of asset purchases from Q4 this year, the factors contributing to a potential mid-cycle slowdown, and how we are positioned in portfolios moving forward.

In this episode, Mark Winterburn, Head of UK Advisory Services, is joined by his colleague from the Advisory Desk, Felicity Selcoe, to discuss the learnings from the recent central bankers' meeting at Jackson Hole and the knock-on effect on equity markets. Turning to the bond market, Felicity outlines our selective approach to fixed income investments as the best of the corporate bond rally is likely behind us. Finally, Mark and Felicity touch on a regular topic of discussion in recent podcasts, China, and where they see long-term opportunities in the market.

In our latest episode, Edward Raymond, Head of Portfolio Management, is joined by Dawn Li Wan Po, a Senior Portfolio Manager responsible for Julius Baer's Global Equity Income Mandate. During their conversation, they discuss the wrap up of the latest earnings season, what was driving share price movement, how portfolio positioning at Julius Baer has been tweaked this year and what the future looks like for earnings growth.

In our latest Investment Insights Podcast, Mark Winterburn is joined by one our Senior Investment Advisors in the UK, Marco Stroili to discuss the recent regulatory news in Chinese equity markets and our revised house view in this area, the good numbers coming out of the Q2 earnings season and the ECB announcement that it will be lifting the restriction on dividends and share buybacks.

In this episode, Mark is joined again by Thanh Cung from Julius Baer's Portfolio Management team. We hear their thoughts on the start of the Q2 earnings season - where we expect to see record high earnings growth, the continued rotation in equity markets - a key theme in our mid-year market outlook - and most notably the reversal in the so called 'reflation trade' seen in Q2. To close the discussion on equities, Mark and Thanh also discuss Julius Baer's recent downgrade of the value segment of equities - comprising sectors such as energy - to neutral. Finally, following recent talks among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - OPEC - and other key oil producers such as Russia to lift oil production, Thanh explains what impact this could have on the current oil market cycle.

In our latest Investment Insights Podcast, Mark Winterburn is joined by Felicity Selcoe from the UK Advisory desk to discuss reasons why we continue to be constructive on equity markets. Felicity and Mark then go on to discuss our recent upgrade of emerging market hard currency debt. This is followed by an assessment of what is happening in China and its equity market, along with our views on this key emerging market.

In our latest Investment Insights podcast, Mark Winterburn is joined by one of Julius Baer's UK Portfolio Managers, Thanh Cung, to discuss the key points from recent Federal Reserve meeting and the market's reaction. One surprise from this meeting was the signaling of a potential rate hike by Fed members earlier than previously expected. Thanh and Mark then go on to discuss the equity positioning in our UK portfolios in response to the interest rate and inflation outlook, with a particular reference to our preferred defensive sector, healthcare.