The Algebris Podcast

Financial credit differs from corporate credit because banks operate through layered capital structures, constantly reassessing borrower risk and holding capital against potential losses; Within that structure, AT1s sit just above equity, offering higher yield. European banks are now fundamentally stronger than in past cycles, supported by tighter regulation, stress testing, improved profitability and better asset quality: This has made moving down the capital stack more attractive, particularly in national champion banks where the risk-reward profile may be compelling. The asset class has also matured: a growing share of AT1s now carries at least one investment-grade rating, challenging the perception that they are purely high-yield instruments. For investors seeking real income, European bank AT1s can sit between low-yielding investment grade bonds and more leveraged private credit or high-yield alternatives.  In Algebris’ latest podcast, Bruno Duarte (Financial Credit Portfolio Manager), explains how financial credit works, why AT1s matter, and where the opportunities may lie today.

China is advancing at exceptional speed in AI, robotics, biotech, green transition, electric vehicles, and other key innovation sectors. Its cost advantage versus the US is enormous, while performance remains highly competitive. The main drag on the economy has been the long adjustment after the property bubble burst, which has weighed on local consumption. However, over the next two to three years this pressure may normalize, while the “new China” continues to accelerate. At the same time, Chinese equities trade at a significant discount to global markets and offer higher dividend yields. For this reason, China, especially through Hong Kong, is an underappreciated long-term opportunity in global portfolios. Listen to Davide Serra (Founder & CEO, Algebris Investments) in his latest analysis. 

The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating a physical deficit and triggering stagflation through lower growth and higher inflation. Markets have reacted quickly, but the moves so far remain relatively limited, suggesting further downside risk for risky assets. With investor positioning still very long after a strong two-year rally, the current shock may represent the early phase of a broader period of volatility.

The central macro message from the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos is that the US may be moving away from the post-war order, forcing other nations to reinvest in defence and economic resilience. Global growth remains strong, supported by large fiscal deficits, but that also keeps the door open to a resurgence of inflation. AI-led capex is significant and may be outpacing the realistic revenue opportunity by 2030, which could challenge current market pricing. Investors are also leaning further into global diversification, especially given a more unpredictable US policy backdrop and expectations for a weaker dollar. We favour financials on yield-curve dynamics and operational leverage from early AI adoption, and we see gold as increasingly supported by central-bank demand and the search for politically independent reserves. Listen to Davide Serra's notes from the World Economic Forum 2026. 

Over the last few months the global economy has held up thanks to strong U.S. fiscal stimulus and widespread deficits elsewhere, but for the first time public debt worldwide is around 100% of global GDP, reducing governments’ room to respond to future shocks. Nearly all asset classes look expensive and U.S. rate cuts are already priced in; moreover, Washington appears to be overstimulating the economy, partly with an eye on next year’s midterm elections. There is also exuberance around AI: to justify current valuations, roughly $2 trillion of additional revenues would be needed by 2030—an implausibly large figure compared with the current revenues of the “Magnificent Seven.” This and other takeaways in Davide Serra's (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) latest analysis.

Markets have adapted to a new, less orthodox economic order, supported by expansionary fiscal policies and more accommodative central banks. Artificial intelligence is seen as the main driver of growth, although for now its impact remains more perceived than real. On the geopolitical front, the Middle East appears more stable, while challenges between the United States, Russia and China remain unresolved. In Europe, initial enthusiasm for German fiscal policy has waned, with growth still weak. In the latest Algebris podcast, Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) – interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK) – highlights the fiscal deterioration of advanced countries and predicts an era of “financial repression”, in which government yields will remain close to inflation. In this context, credit offers interesting opportunities, provided a selective approach is taken. (Episode recorded on 29th October 2025)

Positive proof points in an uncertain world

A single query on ChatGPT can consume up to 10 times the energy of a traditional search, highlighting the urgent need to address infrastructural and environmental challenges.Datacentres currently account for around 2% of global energy demand, with estimates pointing to further growth. Key issues to be addressed include shortages in the electricity grid, physical space and adequate cooling systems.  From energy producers to advanced technology providers: what and where are the investment opportunities in this context? In the new episode of the Algebris podcast, Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), Iacopo Esposito and Antonio Focella (Analysts) from the global equity team explore the topic of datacentres and their growing energy impact, driven by the development of artificial intelligence, interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK).

The United States is facing growing uncertainty due to rising tariffs and a projected $10 trillion in debt issuance, which is pressuring markets and weakening confidence in the dollar. Investors are increasingly hedging as they doubt the administration’s commitment to stable, growth-oriented policies.  In contrast, Europe is experiencing a revival, led by Germany's industrial policy shift that is attracting capital, with financials offering compelling value and strong dividends. China is also emerging as an undervalued opportunity, signaling renewed support for the private sector and presenting a strong investment case compared to the U.S. Overvaluation of the dollar and massive Treasury issuance are driving diversification into euros and yen, with a favorable macro backdrop for financial equities and credit. Listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) in his latest analysis. 

On 2 April, Trump announced a new set of “reciprocal” tariffs to strengthen the US economy, signalling a significant shift in global economic policy. What happens now? Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, explains what tariffs really mean for investors around the world and what to expect from the Fed and the markets in the upcoming months.

The Trump 2 administration has shifted the focus from Wall Street to Main Street, with active tax policies and tariffs to protect domestic industry, while increasing uncertainty and risks. Markets are in correction territory and growth is showing signs of slowing, with data calling for caution and increasing uncertainty.  Markets have reacted with the underperformance of US equity and reallocation towards Europe and China. In fixed income, government remains volatile, while credit still offers opportunities, with a selective approach.  This and more in the latest Algebris podcast with Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK).  The episode was recorded on 27 March 2025.

With obesity rates soaring and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs revolutionising the pharmaceutical space, what does this mean for investors? How are traditional food companies adapting to a world where consumers are prioritizing health over convenience? Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), and Iacopo Esposito (Analyst) join us to break down the key insights from the latest Clean Alpha note, Appetite for Destruction, and explore where the biggest opportunities and risks—lie in this evolving landscape.

"You wouldn't be doing your fiduciary duty as an investor if you decided to ignore the financial sector altogether because you are afraid of what’s happened in the past. It has really turned a new leaf; it is completely different—it's a totally compelling, different investment case." Listen to our latest podcast with Benjie Creelan Sandford (Financial Equity Analyst), Bruno Duarte (Financial Credit Portfolio Manager), interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK) from Algebris Investments.

Women are more likely to have lower incomes compared to men, a disparity rooted in systemic inequalities in the labor market and societal roles. Lower incomes over the life cycle and interrupted career trajectories have profound consequences on women’s financial security, especially in old age as the income gap directly translates into a pension gap.  One way to empower women towards the late stages of their career and retirement is to provide returns to their savings by supporting them in their investment journeys.  Listen to the latest Algebris podcast with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Global Equity Portfolio Manager), Elisa Natali (Equity Analyst) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK)

In 2024, the markets tried to guess what the world would look like after the big rate hikes of 2022-23. In April there was talk of ‘higher for longer’. Growth held, inflation held, and central banks were cautious. In August, the US labour market showed signs of weakening and the markets called for cuts.  The focus of central banks has therefore shifted from inflation to growth. While the Fed faces a resilient US economy and will have to be cautious in its round of cuts, in Europe the ECB will have to cut to cope with an economic slowdown, albeit not a recession.  In the latest Algebris podcast, this and an analysis on the upcoming US elections and the delicate situation in the Middle East. Listen to Gabriele Foà (Global Credit Portfolio Manager) and Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK).  https://www.algebris.com/podcast/its-not-easy-like-sunday-morning/

In Europe the economy is slowing, the ECB is behind the curve and will need to cut rates; meanwhile, the US economy is growing faster and deficit won't come down anytime soon. Also, a look at the economy in Japan and China. After a month of meetings with entrepreneurs and bankers around the world, listen to Davide Serra (Founder and CEO, Algebris Investments) on the latest developments in global markets. https://www.algebris.com/podcast/interest-rates-check-up/  Visit https://www.algebris.com/disclaimer/ for important information about this podcast.

In their latest Clean Alpha | Not just another brick in the wall report, the global equity team at Algebris explains the benefits of advanced technology in building construction and renovation, and the investment opportunities in the sector.Future buildings will be structures that minimise their environmental impact and enhance the health and wellbeing of their occupants. They will use less energy, water, and materials, and produce less waste and greenhouse gas emissions than conventional buildings. They will also provide better indoor air quality, thermal comfort, and natural lighting. Listen to the latest Algebris podcast with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research), Simone Ragazzi (Portfolio Manager) and Antonio Focella (Equity Analyst), interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development UK).

Over the recent days, global markets have been in turmoil, with the Japanese stock market taking the hardest hit on Monday, followed however by a significant rebound on Tuesday. What happened and what does it mean for investors?  Listen to Davide Serra, Founder and CEO of Algebris Investments, on the movements that took place in the markets, Asia and global economy.

In their latest report Clean Alpha | Seeds of change: from the plough to the cloud, the global equity team at Algebris explains how agriculture is fundamental to the survival and prosperity of the human species. When we think of agriculture, we probably have in mind farmers with a tractor and a plough. In reality, there is a very different kind of agriculture, namely precision agriculture, which puts data at the service of farms. What does this mean? Real-time monitoring of a field's weather and productivity and better decision-making systems for farmers; all of which translates into better yields and investment opportunities.  Listen to the latest Algebris podcast with Silvia Merler (Head of ESG & Policy Research) and Simone Ragazzi (Portfolio Manager), interviewed by Douglas Branson (Head of Business Development). 

In the latest update from Davide Serra (Algebris Investments, Founder and CEO) following his recent trip to Asia, we hear about the global economic views of CEOs and policy makers in the region: covering the recovery in China, the region's strong focus on the US dollar and the role of a risk averse European economy.