The Breakfast Table Podcast

Autopsies on the recently departed, Stafford in LA and Goff in DET, why a pencil was Patricia's downfall, blitzing Mahomes and Brady, man vs. Chiefs, Brady the Mad Bomber, big plays and sacks, why the Bucs run defense is a minus against Mahomes, punting props, can Kelce and Hill be stopped without a mercy rule, Andy Reid with a bye, MVP props and a proxy for the pick, who we like and why the total really matters if you like the underdog. Plus a mini-fantasy baseball podcast previewing what's to come, free-throw shooting on the hardwood and boardwalk and even more. We're making this public for non-members but please join us for baseball and football as we alternate week by week until training camp.

NOTE: This is a free sample of a members only Patreon podcast available here: https://www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast?fan_landing=true Mike and Scott discuss their picks in the 1,440-team, 120-league Scott Fishbowl. The very unique scoring is reviewed. Did Mike execute his plan on maximizing expected pick value given all positions are essentially equal? Can you do similarly in your upcoming draft? I guess it depends if you can live with something like one running back through 12 rounds. Does superflex always mean "two QB"? Scott and Mike somehow end up with two of the same QBs. What are the ADP surprises in ADP? Where are their two leagues eerily similar and wildly divergent? It's 99% football but they still manage to argue about Fred Lynn in a sidebar on Alex Verdugo. See their teams and all the SFB info here at Rotogrinders: https://rotogrinders.com/columns/scott-fish-bowl-x-app-3067367 And thanks for your support!

Special guest Sean Chavel of FlickMinute.com discusses Mike's 10 most noteworthy movies he's watched during the pandemic. Not the best, just the most interesting: Targets, Rio Bravo, Christine, Freebie and the Bean, Straight Time (on Sean's recommendation), Dirty Mary Crazy Larry, The Ultimate Warrior, Black Sunday and The Killing. Two just happen to be set during the Super Bowl. Lots of Tarantino is discussed since a couple of these are inspiration for Once Upon A Time In Hollywood and one appears briefly in his most rewatchable film. Follow Sean on Letterboxd.

Continuing our Fantasy Movie Draft, rounds 7-through-12. We had to fill nine genres like fantasy positions and then had three utilities. Check the spreadsheet and follow along to decide who has the best "team." Which movies did we hate to leave out? The free agent wire is LOADED. Did Scott break the genre rules? Decide for yourself. Special guests: Cara Salfino and Geoff Foster of Jordan Peele's Monkey Paw Productions (and Mike's former editor who knows a thing or two about punching up copy as in a scene from one of his picks, as Mike can attest). Too many highlights to mention due to the incredible material provided by the greatest movies ever made. Thanks for your support. Back to sports and the NFL draft next episode. Full Draft Results: https://tinyurl.com/yc8zy56b

Part One of a Fantasy movie draft with Scott, Mike and special guests Cara Salfino and Geoff Foster, from Jordan Peele's Monkey Paw Productions (and Mike's former editor). This is a snake draft. We have nine "positions" to fill in any order -- comedy, horror, rom/rom-com, sci-fi/fantasy, drama, action, Western, thriller, crime/detective. Plus two utilities. Did any strategies emerge in the early going? Which genres are scarce and loaded? Or do you just pick the best movies? Or your personal favorites? Does the one Manhattanite focus on Manhattan movies? All this and more. Part II next week. We're going 11 rounds and reserves, too.

Warning: Spoilers abound. Scott and Mike are joined by Geoff Foster of Jordan Peele's Monkey Paw Productions to review "Uncut Gems" starring Adam Sandler. Geoff also was Mike's sports editor at The Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight. Why is this movie like Leaving Las Vegas, Goodfellas, The Parallax View (super spoiler), Fargo and Midnight Cowboy? How is the sports gambling handled? Is the Diamond District portrayal legit? Comedians as actors. Athletes as actors. Sports superstition. Tip-off parlays. Mob rules. 1970s throwbacks. All this and more.

Mike and Scott and joined by special guest Cara Salfino, follow up on their Eight Men Out review (a film starring Cusack). Cara pulls a Rob Gordon and lists Cusack's Top 5 films, in reverse order. And Scott and Mike weigh in. In Breakfast Table fashion, detours abound (Cameron Crowe movies, movies that everyone loves that Scott hates, great bad movies, Tom Cruise, time travel, Scott's movie take that he says everyone disagrees with and Scott and Mike hating on something everyone else seems to love). A must listen for film buffs/Cusack fans.

Cara Salfino lends her non-football, non-sports-fan perspective to a forgotten classic, North Dallas Forty. Is it a football movie, body horror movie, film noir, counterculture, iconoclastic classic or... just a movie about football? And can you ever watch football the same way again? The movie the NFL never wanted you to see, 40 years later. Spoilers aplenty so watch it first. This podcast is made possible by the support of our Patreon members: https://www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

Mike and Scott channel Siskel and Ebert both figuratively and quite literally in reviewing The Natural -- overwrought caricature or emotionally-rewarding fairy tale? We go through all the performances, plot points, characters, dramatic devices, baseball hyper-realism, cinematic qualities and more. Which of us agrees with Siskel and which with Ebert, nearly 35 years later? What would the back of the Roy Hobbs basically card have said and what would the stats have been for his epic season? Do we both want a New York Knights uniform? Does Redford pass the eyeball test? Would the book ending have been better than the movie's, or vice versa? Hobbs had 80 tools across the board but what would his scouting grade have been in picking women? Should this movie have been about the Arnold Rothstein character or the serial killer of athletes? Spoilers aplenty. This special edition is available to the public, courtesy of our Patreon members.

Scott is on vacation so Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) of FiveThirtyEight joins Mike to talk about projections and the state of fantasy and real football as it relates to maximizing win probability. Is there true skill level among NFL players or are they merely creatures of their environments and usage? Why and to what extent are zeroRB concepts useful in gaining a competitive edge in drafting? How much of offensive vs. defense outcomes are generally driven by the offense? How often should teams pass and how should they run? Are the under 25 QBs ready to propel the NFL into the next generation of play or is Josh bearish on their prospects? Analysis on players including Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce.

A major announcement on the 2018 Fantasy Football Podcast and where to find it for the upcoming season: https://www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

Mike and Scott mourn the passing of their mutual friend and fantasy baseball pioneer/esteemed baseball professional Steve Moyer. Baseball topics include the decline in starting pitching, the amorphous nature of baseball where leagues and divisions are hard to delineate, the most volatile players based on NFBC drafts and who we are in and out on, Benintendi vs. Yelich and Betts vs. Harper, the humidor and wall-scraping homers and much more. This podcast has been made public so that everyone can share in our memories of Steve but is typically available weekly only to Patreon $7 members. https://www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

And the first of our 2018 Fantasy Baseball podcasts, which are posted here weekly for $7 Patreon members. Here we talk about the LABR mixed league draft put together by Sports Weekly. Scott Pianowski participated. Mike Salfino opines. Broadly applicable strategy, overvalued, undervalued, sleepers and busts are all discussed in this extensive podcast. Mike will eat a bug if you don't find this extremely useful. Here is a link to the draft discussed. If you enjoy this, please supporting our content and get complete baseball and football coverage all spring and summer, accessible here: https://www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

(NOTE: This podcast was recorded first for members prior to Gronkowski clearing protocol.) After a classic rock intro, Mike and Scott discuss the keys to the big game and pick the winner and the score. Is the Nick Foles we saw versus the Vikings, a much better defense than the Patriots, fact or fluke? Do the Patriots even have to be chameleons in this matchup? Yards per point. Concussion protocols. Deep passing stats. Some Girls vs. Beggar's Banquet. Was David Bowie correct that Jimmy Page should be feared? The odds of a Belichick or Brady retirement. Various prop bets and the one probable loser that nonetheless pays the best odds. Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast)

Mike and Scott preview the AFC and NFC championship games. Is the Jaguars defense for real? Are they too scheme specific? What is likely to be the Patriots strategy? Who covers Gronk? Can Bortles win a game at this level like Sanchez once did vs. Brady with a similar defense? With the NFC, is Case Keenum a product of super-elite WR play? Is Nick Foles good enough or just too ponderous? Is this Keenum vs. Foles or are the Vikings better almost everywhere? Which of the big losers in the division round is most likely to appear soon in the Super Bowls: the Saints or the Steelers? And of course, we pick both the games, along with some fantasy sleepers. Breakfast of Champions is served. (Patreon members get this episode like all episodes a day early. Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast)

Mike and Scott go over all the games with an eye toward who will star and slump. Which teams will survive and advance? Is Nick Foles capable of leading an Eagles offense that typically struggles on early downs? Is the Falcons defense stout or did they get lucky in silencing the Rams? Is the circus leaving town for Tom Brady? Marcus Mariota: Clutch or lucky? Can Leonard Fournette beast or is he badly overrated? Jacksonville D: All-time or a product of a soft schedule? Why the Saints are the NFL's best and most versatile offense. Is Case Keenum ready for his closeup? All this plus a Bird vs. Dr. J debate over the 1980-81 NBA MVP. Thanks for supporting the pod. Patreon members get this episode like all episodes a day early. Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

Mike and Scott review all the games from both a playoff draft and daily fantasy perspective. They also predict all the games and focus on the key player matchups that should shape the outcomes. Special focus is given to the Chiefs skill players, the surprisingly successful playoff history of bad teams measured by point differential, the real red zone problem with the Falcons offense, Brees's role in keeping the Saints running downhill, Cam Newton's surprisingly consistent awfulness, the lasting relevance of NFL Films archives on YouTube and the content in the Sports Illustrated Vault, where innovation comes from in coaching, what makes a Hall of Famer and much more. Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast (CORRECTION: The Falcons are only middle of the pack in red zone possession per game at home, not overall.)

Happy New Year! The Members-Only Breakfast Table Fantasy Playoff League is announced. Then, some DFS discussion plus lots of sidebars, including: Is Mixon a Gurley in waiting, will Jeff Fisher definitely coach in 2018, has Ebron already broken out, is Two-TE the strategy for 2018, was Matt Ryan bad or unlucky with TDs, who is the NFL MVP, Bigger Disappointment: Dak vs. Derek, Russell Wilson's Tebowing, do the 49ers have the NFL's most enviable QB situation...? Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

Mike and Scott analyze all the Week 16 matchups from a fantasy football perspective. Is there sneaky championship value in Baltimore? Is Jimmy Graham an All-Pro or a dud? Will the Rams let down? Are the Chiefs back to full power? What do matchups say about Bortles and Garoppolo? Zeke Elliott Fantasy Super Bowl MVP? Plus giving the Steelers vs. Patriots game a name. Patreon members get the podcast Wednesday overnight. Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast

Scott and Mike look at all the week's games -- Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- to get you ready for the fantasy football semifinals. What to do with the Eagles without Wentz and the Packers with Rodgers. Are Bell and Brown the best RB/WR tandem ever? Is Gurley in Bell's class? Did we catch a glimpse on Monday night of Tom Brady's football mortality? Is Cam Newton Joe Flacco with wheels? All the games are analyzed, complete with recommendations on who to play and who to avoid with all the chips on the table. Patreon members get the podcast Wednesday overnight. Please visit Patreon to support this content going forward for as little as $1 per month. www.patreon.com/BreakfastTablePodcast