The Briefing Room

The Trump hokey-kokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they’re heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren’t. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it’s next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what’s happening to world trade and what happens next? Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people. Guests: Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of Glasgow Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump says the conflict between Israel and Iran is over after 12 days. For the US and Israel the declared objective has been to destroy Iran’s capacity to make a nuclear bomb, with a side order of regime change if possible. They have damaged Iran’s capacity to build nuclear weapons but for how long? And what now is the objective for Iran? To rebuild their nuclear weapons programme? Or just for the regime to stay in power? David Aaronovitch and his guests discuss what's next for Iran. Guests: Dr Patricia Lewis, arms control and nuclear physics expert Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, Dr Lina Khatib, Associate Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Editor: Richard Vadon

Following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian administered Kashmir in April a short military conflict broke out between India and Pakistan. For a brief history of the tensions over Kashmir Caroline Bayley spoke to former BBC India correspondent, Andrew Whitehead, who’s an expert on Kashmir and its history and author of “A mission in Kashmir”. This is part of a new mini-series called The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

As the Ukraine war grinds on with little sign of Russian president, Vladimir Putin agreeing to a ceasefire we trace the evolution of his attitude towards Ukraine. David Aaronovitch spoke to Vitaly Shevchenko who is Russia editor for BBC Monitoring and co-presenter of the BBC’s Ukrainecast. This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

Tariffs have dominated the first few months of President Trump’s second term. But where did he get the idea from? Ben Carter spoke to Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire in the US. This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Ben Carter Editor: Richard Vadon

Rare earths and critical minerals are precious resources everyone seems to want but what are they and what are they used for? David Aaronovitch speaks to Ellie Saklatvala, head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing at Argus – a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets. Guest Ellie Saklatvala Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

In the past few weeks Marks & Spencer, the Co-op and Harrods have all been grappling with the effects of cyber attacks. The most profitable form of cyber attack at the moment is ransomware where criminals infiltrate computer systems, shut them down and then demand a ransom to restore services, or even to stop them publishing data they’ve stolen. This is now a global criminal industry which can affect the running of whole businesses. Marks & Spencer said this week that disruption to its online ordering service would continue throughout June and into July. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how ransomware works, who is responsible and what can be done to stop it. Guests: Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and co-founder Global Signal Exchange Geoff White, investigative journalist and author and co-host of the BBC’s podcast series, The Lazarus Heist Susan Landau, Professor of Cyber Security and Policy at Tufts University Professor Alan Woodward, a computer security expert at the University of Surrey Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Nathan Gower Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound Engineers: James Beard and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Dire warnings of famine in Gaza, a broken ceasefire and the threat by the Israeli government of a new “intense” offensive which would forcibly displace Palestinians to an area in the south of Gaza and perhaps out of the strip altogether, plus the latest release of a US hostage. This is the war between Israel and Gaza 19 months on from the deadly attack by Hamas which killed 1200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages. So what chance of peace between Israel and Gaza? Can a new ceasefire be negotiated with US backing or will Israel go it alone and forcibly occupy most of Gaza? Guests: Yolande Knell, BBC Middle East Correspondent Anshel Pfeffer, Israel Correspondent at The Economist, Yossi Mekelberg Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House Shibley Telhami, Professor of Government and Politics at University of Maryland and a non resident senior fellow at Brookings Institution. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinators: Sabine Schereck and Katie Morrison Sound Engineer: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump has signed a minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources. The US president also said he’d like to take over Greenland and even Canada. Why? Well one reason may well be the rare earths and critical minerals found there. Critical minerals are vital for almost every industry from the manufacturing of computers to fighter jets. But in recent years the rise of green technologies has been fuelling demand for minerals used to make batteries for electric cars and other renewable infrastructure. One country dominates the minerals market - China - which has repercussions for the rest of the world, including the US. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss what and where these minerals are, why everyone wants them and how the rest of the world can compete with China. Guests: Ellie Saklatvala, Head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing, Argus, a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets. Henry Sanderson, author of ‘Volt Rush, the Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green’ and Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Sophia Kalantzakos, Global Distinguished Professor in Environmental Studies and Public Policy at New York University in Abu Dhabi and the author of 'China and the Geopolitics of Rare Earths' Olivia Lazard, a senior fellow affiliated with the think tank, Carnegie Europe and Berggruen Institute Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineer: David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

Tension is high in Indian administered Kashmir following the killing on 22nd April of 26 civilians almost all of whom were Hindu tourists. They were visiting Pahalgam - an area often described as the “Switzerland of India”. Militants opened fire on them and in the days since relations between India and Pakistan, which both claim Kashmir in full but only administer it in part, have deteriorated. India accuses Pakistan of supporting the militants and Islamabad rejects the allegations. This is the latest attack in a decades-long dispute over the region. David Aaronovitch and guests ask what happens next and what sort of a response we are likely to see from India and also Pakistan? Guests: Andrew Whitehead: Former BBC India correspondent and expert on Kashmir and its history, author of ‘A Mission in Kashmir’ Anbarasan Ethirajan: BBC South Asia Regional Editor Husain Haqqani : Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC and former Pakistan ambassador to Sri Lanka and the US Michael Kugelman - South Asia analyst based in Washington DC and author of Foreign Policy magazine’s South Asia Brief newsletter Sumantra Bose: Professor of International and Comparative Politics at Krea University in India and author of Kashmir at the Crossroads: Inside a 21st-Century Conflict Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer wants the UK to become “one of the great AI superpowers”. Earlier this year the government published a plan to use artificial intelligence in the private and public sectors to boost growth and deliver services more efficiently. Once mainly the preserve of the tech community, AI really entered public awareness with the release of ChatGPT, a so-called “chatbot” founded by the US company OpenAI at the end of 2022. It can write essays, scripts, poems and even write computer code …and millions of people are using it. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether the UK could become a successful AI hub, as the government hopes and asks if we'll be able to compete globally with the US and China, the home of huge tech companies? Guests: Dame Wendy Hall, Regius Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Web Science Institute at the University of Southampton. Eden Zoller, Chief Analyst in Applied AI, Omdia. Professor Neil Lawrence, the DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at University of Cambridge and author of The Atomic Human Jeremy Kahn, AI Editor at Fortune magazine and author of Mastering AI: A survival guide to our superpowered future. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Nathan Gower Production coordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump’s fury with China shows no sign of abating. High tariffs - first imposed by the US but now on both sides - are giving way to a very real trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. China’s President Xi Jinping is refusing to blink - so far - and in the past week he's been on the road in South East Asia, visiting Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. Where this goes now depends in large part on China's calculations about the capacity and determination of both sides to endure a trade war. So what cards does China hold ? And what are the implications for China's own economy and for the rest of us? Guests: Damien Ma, Economist, Kellogg School of Management, Chicago Rana Mitter, ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School Isabel Hilton, visiting Professor at the Lau China Institute, King's College, London David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy Project Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Lucy Pawle Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Max Deveson

Rarely has it been so difficult to see the wood for the trees. The trees being Donald Trump’s new tariffs announced on what he called Liberation Day and which took effect this week, plus the immediate responses to them. And the wood being the economic strategy that lies behind it all. ​​ ​​That strategy seems to evolve on a daily basis. Having vowed to ‘stay the course’ on tariffs earlier this week, yesterday saw Trump issue a change that ‘came from the heart’ - that change being a 90 day pause for everyone except China. It’s hard to keep up with the plot changes and in this programme we’re not going to try. Instead we’re going to step back and explore the origin’s of Trump’s love of tariffs, find out what history tells us about their effectiveness and we’ll ask whether Trump does actually have a grand plan. ​​ ​​If he does, what is it and can it succeed? Guests: Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics the University of Cambridge Duncan Weldon, economist and author of "Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through" Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The Times Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: James Beard Production Coordinator: Katie Morrison Editor: Richard Vadon

Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in Turkey in the past two weeks in protest at the arrest and jailing of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. He’s seen as one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals and since his arrest he’s been voted as the opposition party’s presidential candidate in the next elections. He’s been accused of corruption, which he strongly denies and his supporters see his detainment as a political move by the Government. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether we’re witnessing the end of democracy in Turkey. Guests: Mark Lowen, BBC Correspondent and former BBC Istanbul Correspondent Dr Ziya Meral, Lecturer in International Studies and Diplomacy, SOAS Firdevs Robinson, Turkish journalist and broadcaster Monica Marks, Assistant Professor Middle East Politics , NYU in Abu Dhabi Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: Dave O’Neill and James Beard Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon (Image: Demonstration organised by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) against the detention of Istanbul’s mayor, in Istanbul, Turkey - 29 March 2025. Credit: Tolga Bozoglu/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Securing peace in Ukraine is proving harder than President Trump first thought. Separate talks between US officials and Ukrainian and Russian representatives were held in Saudi Arabia a few days ago. But the tentative ceasefire they reached just for shipping in the Black Sea has already hit problems with Moscow demanding certain sanctions are lifted if it’s to comply. And achieving a full ceasefire that Russia will accept still seems as elusive as ever. David Aaronovitch and guests ask what Putin’s bottom line on Ukraine really is? Have his long term aims changed and what might he accept? Guests: Vitaly Shevchenko, Russia Editor for BBC Monitoring Sir Laurie Bristow, President of Hughes Hall at Cambridge University and the former U.K. ambassador to Russia from 2016 to 2020. Angela Stent, Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former US National Intelligence Officer for Russia. Mark Galeotti, writer on Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Bethan Ashmead Latham Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon

The Government is reorganising the way the NHS is run in England by scrapping the body that’s been in charge and giving direct control to the Department of Health and Social Care. Jobs will go and the country’s biggest quango will be dismantled. But what is the government actually trying to do to the NHS? What are its aims and how does the restructure fit into the government’s big picture for the health service in the UK? Guests: Hugh Pym, BBC Health Editor Siva Anandaciva, Director of Policy, King’s Fund Dame Jennifer Dixon, Chief Executive of the Health Foundation Dame Carol Propper, Professor of Economics Imperial College in the Department of Economics and Public Policy Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Beth Ashmead Latham, Kirsteen Knight, Caroline Bayley Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon

There’s huge pressure on special educational needs and disabilities, known as SEND. The number of children and young people who need extra support has rocketed as more and more are diagnosed with autism, adhd and other mental health conditions. It’s led to a funding crisis which is putting a strain on council budgets which pay for the extra help. But it isn't just a financial issue - parents say they are struggling to access the right support for their children. So what’s gone wrong and what can be done about it? Guests: Branwen Jeffreys, BBC Education Editor WIll Farr, Cambridge University Faculty of Education Tony Travers, Associate Dean LSE School of Public Policy Luke Sibieta, Institute for Fiscal Studies David Thomas, Former Head Teacher and CEO Axiom Maths Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Beth Ashmead Latham, Kirsteen Knight and Caroline Bayley Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production Coordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon

Donald Trump has only been US president for just over a month and yet the world order seems to be changing by the day. Ukraine has been cut adrift with the pausing of US military aid and intelligence following President Zelensky’s disastrous meeting in the Oval Office. And Europe has been left wondering what is coming next as President Macron of France warns that the continent is "at a turning point in history." Europe faces not only having to support Ukraine without the US but potentially having to defend itself against Russia with no help from America. So can it do that? And how quickly could it fill the gaps left by the US? Guests: Frank Gardner, BBC Security Correspondent Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist Claudia Major, Director international security division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Fenella McGerty Senior Fellow for Defence Economics, International Institute for Strategic Studies Presenter David Aaronovitch Producers: Kirsteen Knight, Beth Ashmead Latham, Caroline Bayley Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Editor: Richard Vadon (Image: Soldiers in silhouette. Credit: Photo by Martin Divisek/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

We talk through the history of the military alliance.