The Forex Indicator

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Most recently we’ve seen volatility on the low side. But we’ve got good news this week. Volatility has come back into the market, ever so slightly but we’ve got the likes of gold, one of the commodities that we’ve been watching recently has really broken down below some key support levels. It’s now sitting around that 1247 mark and there has been a lot of volatility there. Even silver has a little bit of a down week. Down around the low under $19 per ounce so that’s one to watch as well. Now we’ve got a couple of key plays that we are looking for this week. One in particular is the Aussie Dollar. Recently, the AUD has pushed up above that 93 cent mark, likely off the back of some of the positive Chinese manufacturer and PMI data which has just been better than expected at 50.8 Now that has been a little bit higher than expected. Also, there might be a little bit of a [1:03] from Credit Suisse that has suggested that those ghost towns with their railways and also their electricity usage is actually a little bit interesting, has been a little bit higher and there may be a little bit of a bottoming there which is one to watch out for. So perhaps the AUD has been benefiting from that. But we start of seeing a little bit of a US Dollar strength and a little bit of a pullback in the AUD. Now that’s above those 93 cent mark. Looking across the other commodities, in particular, iron ore, we’ll be watching closely because it has broken below the $100 per ton level. But not only that, recently on Friday it broke down at 4.1% with a bit of the panic selling. It’s now down at 91.80. Now that’s going to cost havoc among our iron ore stocks. Things like Fortescue, stocks like Fortescue, Arium and of course BHP and Rio. Now in the UK Friday session, BHP was down 2.8%, Rio was down over 4% so a stunning season continued weakness there, although at some stage we will see a little bit of a bottom but there’s been no flow up to this one. It keeps going. Now on the macro economic front, we’ve got so much… There’s no less than 20 major economic releases this week. We have the inflation data. And inflation is quite interesting. It’s been steady across the globe and that’s like the kryptonite to gold prices rising. A lot of people use gold as a hedge against inflation. And because gold has been coming down, gold has also been coming down as well. So back on the macro economic fund, Australian TD inflation numbers will be out this week. We’ve got some big ones, we’ve got on Tuesday, we’ve got the RBA rate announcement, we’ve also got the trade balance numbers out of Australia and we’re expecting a surplus of $900 million dollars which is a pretty solid result. Now, across the globe, we’ve got quite a lot of information on as well.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. New to forex trading? Here’s a quick guide to getting started. At Invast, we focus on traders of all levels. However, we understand that when you’re starting out, that’s when you need that little bit of extra help and support. Are you ready? Let’s head down the rabbit hole and take a tour with me. First, we need to learn key principles and beliefs to develop good habits. With the combination of education and webinars, dedicated account managers are known to show a high degree of skill and quick to determine what is necessary to trade, help clients get acquainted with trading platforms and share insights and tips for more effective trading. We must be able to decide what market to trade. This is a very important decision and is recommended you consult with someone with the expertise and forethought to guide you. it’s always a good idea to discuss your options with experienced professionals. At Invast we have it in the Pilot Skills Specialists that are more than happy to assist you on your journey. We offer some of the worlds leading trading platforms, allowing you to review tried and tested trading strategies which guarantee solutions for our clients’ trading needs. Applying money management roles not only protects your trading capital but also helps accelerate your trading profits by making use of the most advance money management techniques and state of the art trading technology. We are able to achieve our core philosophy of helping our clients. If you are after more quality education for new traders, head on to invast.com.au to discover a wealth of knowledge.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Forex market this week are really looking quite interesting. In particular, our focus is on the US Dollar Index and the Euro-Dollar. The Dollar index is hitting fresh six-week highs while the Euro-Dollar has been pulling back from those high 139.5 levels. And most recently, it’s been breaking some key support levels. With the European elections on over the weekend and the Euro anti EU party starting to strengthen with their vote, we start to see the Euro come off even more. Traggy will be speaking a little bit later tonight so keep an eye on the EUR/USD in that instance. AUD/USD has been finding a little bit of support and for those range bound traders, if you’re looking for some trades, the USD/JPY is the key one. It’s really range bound so keep an eye out for some trades there. Now moving on to the indices. The indices are the most interesting because we’ve got so many indexes hitting new highs. In particular, the DAX, we’ve got the Dow Jones hitting highs, the S&P 500 and what we want to focus on today is the Aussie 200 Index. Now the Aussie 200 index is really interesting from the point that we’re not able to hit even six year highs at this point in time. And it’s because of the iron ore prices. Iron ore as we spoke about last week has broken that $100/ton level, down at $97.50. Now if we see some support around those levels and a break back up above $100/ton than we’ll likely to see a little bit of a rally because we have the banks and property trust sectors so strong at the moment. Now the other thing that player that we are looking for is a little bit of a short squeeze. There’s so many places that are short the index at this point in time that if we do see some strength that cross those iron ore and mining stocks and the banks and property trust continue to strengthen, we’ll likely to see a break and a pop higher and we’re likely see a little bit of a short squeeze there. So keep an eye out for that one that’s probably going to be the big one. On the commodities fund, not a lot action there. Gold’s still consolidating. It’s range bound but we’re looking for that energy to build up and a break either side. Brent Crude as we spoke about last week continues to hit those overhead resistance levels. It’s not breaking through and we’re probably made a little significant, economic data to drive it through those overhead resistance levels. So for those of you who are looking for a little bit of a trade there, there may be sell the strength and maybe look to buy back at lower levels if possible. Now on the macro economic front, there’s not a lot this week. The US market is closed this week for the memorial day. Later in the week we’ve got consumer confidence and durable goods orders on Thursday which will be key one to watch out for. On the Aussie data front, we don’t have a log. We’ve got our construction and housing and economic data coming out. So this week, Invast Insight’s definitely keeping on that one. There’s a lot that’s been covered by Peter Esho in this week’s Insights. If you don’t have a copy already grab a four week trial and we hope you have a fantastic week. Thanks.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. ST24 is Invast’s contribution to the future of Forex Trading, allowing traders of all levels to hand pick those strategies that specifically suit their individual needs and timeframe. ST24 allows trader to pick from thousands of trading strategies that have passed Invast’s stringent selection process. In addition ST24 employs a strict risk management system to prevent traders from over trading and over leveraging their account with our proprietary indicator, the margin meter. ST24 is one of our most exciting proprietary trading products. The ST24 trading platform has gathered quite a ground swell of interest in Japan and is the talk of the Forex industry, having quickly become the world’s largest auto-trading service.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Last week we saw quite a low volatility weekend. Leaving into this week, we see a little bit of the same but some of the place we want you to watch out for are in particular the iron ore stocks. Iron ore is fast approaching the lowest level since 2012 and the likes of Fortescue and Aryan, the pure iron ore players have really been dropping significantly. Other commodities that we’re going to be keeping a close eye on are gold. Gold has been range bound for a little and we expect a little bit of volatility to puff out of that once this consolidation breaks. Another one that we’ve been covering quite extensively is copper. Copper has been in a little bit of an uptrend. However, it’s been just dead for the last week. It’s been going nowhere. So we’re expecting a little bit of a break possibly either way for that one. Another one that you want to really keep an eye on is Brent crude. Now Brent crude is actually hitting the top of the range at around 109.5 fast approaching 110 but the bottom of the range is down there at 106. So support resistance traders will be looking out for a good range bound trade there. Now, the other one that’s had a little bit of volatility, in fact quite a lot is the Euro-Dollar. The Euro-Dollar was up there at around 139.5 and support is currently at 137. It’s sitting on 137 at a double bottom so we’re expecting a possible bounce there so keep your eye on that one. Now, moving on to the rest of the week, as far as the macro economic data is concerned, we’ve got CPI figures out of Great Britain. That’s one to watch. The pound has come up a little bit recently so we’re expecting a little bit of a movement there as well when the CPI numbers come out. In addition to that, we’ve got the Bank of Japan. They’re releasing their interest rate decision. Consumer confidence in Australia will be a little bit of a play on the Aussie dollar. The Federal budget’s just been out so we expect a little bit of volatility there to see what the consumer confidence levels are on that one. Towards the end of the week, we start to see US new home sales coming out. But the big one to watch is the manufacturing data. Manufacturing data will be coming out of Australia, China, the Euro Zone, and then moving on to the US at the end of the week. So a reasonable wee, as far as the macro economic data but plenty of opportunities for range bound traders and this week’s Invast Insights will be covering the technical levels on the EUR/USD. We’ll be having the 2014 stock picks from Peter Esho and we hope you have a fantastic week. Thanks a lot.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The big news in currency markets this week is the fall in the EUR from some very elevated levels. We’re basically been calling a top in the EUR for the past few weeks. It actually surprised us to the upside before it actually started to spiral down. But it is eventually starting to correct. And the expectations in the market are the ECB will at some point in time will come into the market and look to cap that elevation in the EUR against the US dollar. In this week’s Invast, since it’s client only report, we actually go through the tax, which is a very key market amongst our clients. We work through the key DAX index constituents and we show and illustrate just what impact the high EUR has had on corporate profits for businesses just like Bayer, for example. Right at the very top in terms of the largest index constituent on the DAX and so, with that in mind, with all that corporate news and financial impact in mind, that’s really what’s flowing through into the ECB and pressuring the ECB to start to act on that exchange rate. So there’s no doubt that that will be the key focus for traders and currency markets this week. It will also be very important to watch the Chinese numbers. The industrial production and retail numbers which come out this week, they will be a major direction driver for the Australian Dollar and also for commodity prices. What we are seeing also is a base being developed in the copper price which now looks quite comfortable with major support at $3AUD a pound. We’re seeing metals like nickel for example continuing to rally high. We’re seeing a flat to stable Brent crude price which again we’ve spoken about in Invast Insights this week, the technical outlook. And so, the copper price will be a major key market that traders will be watching over on the Chinese data which comes out. The Australia budget is a very topical points. It’s a point which will update our clients on the Invast blog. We’ll go through all of the major points but it’s something that’s very unlikely to move the market, both the stock market or the ASX 200 Index and also the Australian Dollar. We think the key focus tomorrow, Tuesday will be the Chinese numbers not necessarily the Australian budget. Make sure you tuned in to our live market analysis this week on Wednesday. Our live market analysis last week was on Gold. We called the key support levels. We think gold is looking quite comfortable at around the 1280 an ounce level and we’ll be updating gold and other major markets including the DAX on Wednesday on our live market analysis. Towards the second half of the week, there’s a bit of news coming out from the bank of England There’s also key data around inflation coming out of Europe and there’s also similar data coming out of the United States. We’ll be updating all that. With all that in mind, the EUR, the Chinese data and the copper market are the things that we’re keeping our eye on very, very closely at the beginning of the week.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

NOTICE: Please note that any advice given is general in nature. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Hey everyone, this is Vito Henjoto, Senior Technical Strategist at Invast Financial Services. Today is the 2nd of April 2014th. Another day, another outlook on the currency front. Now let’s take a quick look on the AUD/USD. Yesterday we we’re kind of expecting the AUD/USD to break out of that range where 0.93 was resistance and 0.92250 was support. We managed to take a small peak slightly above the 0.93 but obviously we see a strong selloff after that happens. That has continued to put pressure on the AUD/USD right now. Price is currently trading towards the lower end of the bend in here. And again, we prefer to wait for prices to get out of this range, unless you are a really short term trader and you prefer trading intraday within these two levels here, the 75 pip range. We much prefer to wait for price to manage to just break above the 0.93 in a confidently or below 0.9225 on the hourly time frame before we decide to put on any positions on the AUD/USD. The Ichimoku again, syndicating a potential of more from sideways market conditions here has considered change and the Ichimoku here, it just goes back and forth. Right now prices again trading below the Ichimoku cloud but resistance or the key pivot level basically hovers on 0.9255 level here. That’s like going to stay as long as the prices are going to be trading within these two bends here. Divergence-wise, there’s no clear divergence on the hourly time frame for the AUD/USD. I do want to point out though, if you go into the daily time frame, how the AUD/USD is likely going to be over bought very, very soon. We’re just waiting for the AUD level to come back down. We kind of estimating if the price manage to drop back down to 92 cents then there’s a high chance it will actually correct itself even lower. So do keep a close eye on the AUD/USD here. But again, intraday wise, all short term time frame, we’re looking for more definite trend direction here compared to the range bound market condition where our AUD/USD is currently traded in. So that’s the AUD/USD. This week, I do really want to focus more on the Japanese Yen side of things. Let’s take a look at the EUR/JPY, the AUD/JPY, the USD/JPY. The reason why I want to talk about this is that, [inaudible] raises their consumption tax. I believe it was from three percent to eight percent and the Tongkan Survey wasn’t that great yesterday. But it’s not going to stop Abenomics at this point in time, I think. Bank of Japan is not going to hold back on their aggressive policy here just because these numbers are dropping. Take a look at the EUR/JPY here. Obviously we have seen a lot of weakness on the JPY front and that’s likely going to be a trend that’s going to continue going forward here. So EUR/JPY, you can see very clearly the uptrend is really, really strong. Prices are trading above the Ichimoku cloud. This is on the hourly time frame here. Take a look at the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen, both of them are still pushing up really higher right now. We do expect a little bit of a pullback right now. Price is basically just right around the 143 level mark there. And it’s also very close to 161.48% Fibonacci extension. That’s coming in at 143.11 so price is likely going to be pulling back a little bit. Instead of shorting the EUR/JPY, I much prefer looking for a buyback once the price corrected itself. Currently we are looking at potential return towards our 50% here about 142.50 level there. I’ll just highlight that one for 250 over here. You can see why I really want to get a buyback run this level here. This is where the Kijun-Sen is located. Also previous resistance level on the EUR/JPY so price management bounce off from 142.50 then I much prefer to buy back on dips for the EUR/JPY. Target to the upside for the EUR/JPY, we have 144, 145 as potential target to the upside. But I’ll update that. As soon as we have further confirmation, we’ll likely going to get this tonight during the live market analysis session. So if you are interested in joining those, go to our website and register for it. And now, next one I want to bring up is the AUD/JPY. AUD/JPY we do again look for a little bit of a pull back here. We have 96 as the key resistance here on the AUD/JPY and that’s likely going to cap the market from progressing even further at this point in time. So we are looking for a bit of a pull back, potentially towards 94.50 level here. And that’s basically where the previous resistance level is located. And we also have two support trend lines here holding off the AUD/JPY. So we are going to be seeing a little bit more support on the AUD/JPY. Again, 94.50 is the preferred level to look for a potential bounce and again it [inaudible] with the EUR/JPY, we much prefer going long once it manages to pull back a little bit. The USD/JPY, I need to point yesterday, and yesterday we talked about how the USD/JPY managed to close consistently above 103 and it really pushed up a little bit higher. We do have a little bit of a resistance and this is actually the level to talk about yesterday as well. On the USD/JPY, I think it was on the four hour time frame, I believe yes. So we basically going to be looking at this previous resistance level here that’s basically about 103.75 level. That’s going to be the key resistance to watch out for. We haven’t touched that level yet. We do expect a little bit of a resistance from that point and then we might see a little bit of a pullback to the downside for the USD/JPY. We haven’t seen any strong confirmation of a potential dropdown yet or a correction but assuming that it’s going to correct itself right around the 103.75 we can use this as kind of like a guidance on how far down it can correct itself to. First of all we have is that 103.25 and then 103 itself. So basically, between 23.6 and 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement. We’re going to get rid of that, I’m going to highlight this. So 103.25 and 103, that’s going to be the first support level there that we are going to be keeping a close eye out for. If it does break below that, then the next key level is going to be at 102.75 which is right over here. So again, same scenario with the AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY. For the USD/JPY we are looking for a little bit of a pullback and we much prefer going long once that pullback has been completed. I think there’s a lot more weakness for the JPY here against the Yen crosses and so let’s see what happens there. Again a reminder, tonight’s going to be a live trading