The Odd Years

It's a consequential week in the Supreme Court as justices hear a case that could reorient the bounds of executive authority and overturn a ninety year precedent that insulates independent government agencies from political interference from the president. President Trump has tested those bounds of his executive power on everything from tariffs and trade to immigration to government spending. It's now up to the Supreme Court to determine just how far that authority can stretch, and that's why Amy wanted to talk to our guest today, Josh Gerstein, a reporter at Politico, who covers the intersection of law and politics -- which these days feels like just about everything under the sun. Amy and Josh talked about the dynamics in this Supreme Court, how they may rule on these upcoming cases, including ones like the Voting Rights Act. We recorded this conversation on Thursday, December 4th, right before the court announced they were taking up the birthright citizenship case and before they issued their stay on Texas' redistricting map. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Interested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

In Amy’s opinion, Astead Herndon is one of the sharpest and most thoughtful political journalists out there. His New York Times podcast, The Run-Up, did an amazing job pulling back the cover on how national politics is done and showing the gulf that exists between the parties, the insiders and actual voters. It’s this kind of journalism that has set Astead apart from the pack. He picks apart conventional wisdom and elevates the complexities and gray areas that are critical in understanding this political moment. He's also been skeptical of the idea that traditional forms of political journalism can keep up with the significant changes we've seen in the way Americans receive and process the fire hose of digital media coming at them every single day. It's one reason why he made the decision to leave the New York Times for a role at Vox. There, he’ll take on the position of host and editorial director and create a new weekly video podcast about, of course, politics starting next year. This was a really interesting conversation that covered everything from the media to the midterms to the World Cup. We recorded it on Wednesday, November 19th.

Californians often like to think of themselves as the center of the universe. But when it comes to politics, this deep blue state is rarely in the spotlight - until now. The passage of Prop 50 in last Tuesday's election was the most consequential development to date in the redistricting wars. The new Democratic drawn map will cost Republicans three to five seats in 2026 and also shores up five vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The win is also a feather in the cap of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom who hopes to ride the momentum from the Prop 50 landslide win all the way to the White House. And if that news wasn't enough last week, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, the San Francisco icon who led House Democrats through multiple wars, economic crises, and impeachments, announced she would retire after nearly four decades in Congress. Her decision unleashes pent up political floodgates and kicks off a fierce primary fight for the chance to fill her district. To talk through all of this, we've invited Cook Political Report U.S. House Editor Erin Covey, who's covering the redistricting wars as closely as anyone in the country. And also joining us is Mark Barabak, an LA Times columnist and expert in all things political in California. We recorded this conversation on Thursday, November 6th. Follow all our Redistricting coverage: https://www.cookpolitical.com/redistricting Check out our interactive Redistricting Map (in front of the paywall!): https://www.cookpolitical.com/redistricting/2025-26-mid-decade-map You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Interested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

One week from today, voters in New Jersey and Virginia will go to the polls. These are state and not federal elections. But they can serve as bellwethers for the upcoming midterm election next year. Topics that resonate in a purple state like Virginia this year, for example, are likely to be issues that are significant in swing states and districts in 2026. Next Tuesday, we’ll also look closely at voter turnout for some early clues as to which party is more excited to show up and vote next year. Even as our politics has become more and more nationalized, these contests in Virginia and New Jersey are also impacted by unique state and local issues and trends. And that's why we wanted to discuss these contests with two people who really understand the issues, the electorate, and parts of the state will be most important to watch on November 4th. Amy is joined by Joey Fox of the New Jersey Globe and Chaz Nuttycombe, founder and executive director of State Navigate, who's following the Virginia contests. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, October 22nd. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief. Interested in subscribing to CPR? Lear more here. Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

It's safe to say Democrats are going through something of an identity crisis at the moment. They have no clear leaders, no driving issues, and no real power in Washington. And that makes the current government shutdown an interesting test case for Democratic leaders like Chuck Schumer over what they think their voters want and how best to fight Donald Trump. Our guest today, Democratic strategist Lis Smith, has not minced words when it comes to perceptions of her party. She told the New York Times that the Democratic brand was “in the toilet” and recently called for Democrats to “burn the party establishment down.” Smith, however, is not some upstart campaign disruptor. She's a veteran of twenty political campaigns, most recently as a senior adviser to Pete Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign. This makes her critique of the party and the work she's doing this cycle to try and fix it worth understanding and exploring more deeply. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, October 7th. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Interested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

We're about eight months into Donald Trump's second term, a victory driven in large part due to voter frustration with the economy and their belief that he would help get inflation down. So what does the economic picture look like today? That's not as easy a question to answer as you would think. Stock market set record highs, but consumers remain pessimistic about inflation. The tariffs implemented by the Trump administration haven't caused the kinds of economic damage many economists predicted they would, yet it's also clear that tariffs are impacting economic decision making in ways that aren't altogether obvious. And then there's AI. If you work for or invested in a company making AI, you're doing great. But what about those folks, especially new graduates entering the workforce who are being displaced by the new technology? Thankfully, we found someone to help us better understand this moment. Heather Long is chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union and a contributing columnist for The Washington Post. She's not only super smart, but she can make very confusing and complicated subject like this one understandable and approachable. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, September 24th. Check out our CPR 2025-2026 Redistricting Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/2025-2026-redistricting-tracker-how-many-seats-could-flip-0 You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Interested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

We took a late summer break, but we're back with a new slate of really great interviews! When we started this year, redistricting was not something we thought would be driving our politics this cycle. But, of course, that's no longer the case with Texas unleashing a domino effect of redistricting efforts across the country. Thankfully, we know someone really well who can help us understand what's happening: The Cook Political Report's very own David Wasserman. If you follow Dave on X, you know him as Redistrict. Redistricting itself is a topic Dave's been fascinated with for a very long time. He was pouring over maps and congressional data as a kid, which we talk about in this conversation. (It's pretty adorable.) Now as one of the most trusted sources in the country on congressional maps, we literally can't think of anyone better to help us navigate this complicated and unprecedented mid-cycle redrawing of districts. We recorded this conversation on Thursday, September 11th. Check out our CPR 2025-2026 Redistricting Tracker: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/2025-2026-redistricting-tracker-how-many-seats-could-flip-0 You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Interested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

Back in 2023, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote a book that laid out a path for how the party could win future elections with a working class multiracial coalition. Later that year, Amy talked with Patrick on this very podcast where they discussed whether Trump could expand his base to include those voters of color. Well, as we saw, he did. In fact, in 2016, the coalition that elected Trump was 88% white. By 2024, it was down to just 78% white. So we wanted to have Patrick Ruffini back on for a conversation about how well that same coalition is holding up six months into Trump 2.0, whether these voters will show up for Republicans in 2026, and whether the next Republican nominee for president will have a similar appeal these voters. Patrick is a partner and pollster for Echelon Insights and writes a great Substack, The Intersection. Also, a quick programming note: we are taking a bit of a summer break in August, but never fear! We'll be back in September with new episodes of The Odd Years. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Interested in subscribing to CPR? Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers.

This week we are diverging from our normal Odd Years format to introduce you to another Cook Political Report product, Editors Roundtable. This podcast features a rotating cast of our Cook Political Report team breaking down the latest news, analysis and insights about the most important House, Senate and Gubernatorial contests in the country. We like to think of this podcast as an opportunity for you to get the behind the scenes access to the conversations we are having at our weekly Cook Political Report editorial meetings. This week, our talented colleagues talk about the most interesting and consequential state in the 2026 midterms: Michigan. The Wolverine state has it all; a three-way gubernatorial contest featuring the former Democratic Mayor of Detroit, who is running as an Independent; competitive primaries for one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, and a slew of critical House contests that could determine control of Congress next year. And, we can’t have a conversation about Michigan without using a mitt (in this case our Managing Editor’s own oven mitt), to help illustrate where each important congressional district and key cities are located in the state. That “U” shape between the thumb and index finger, that’s Detroit, BTW. We hope you enjoy this episode. And, more importantly, if you do like it, and to hear more of it, subscribe to the Cook Political Report where you can get the kind of deeply sourced, non-partisan and accurate analysis of every race up in 2025 and 2026. Go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Listeners can use the discount code"ODD10" to save 10% on any subscription. This offer is available only to new subscribers. You can also get Editors Roundtable for just $1.99 a month on Apple podcast. Read Jessica on Michigan's open Senate seat here: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/michigan-senate/republicans-aim-avoid-messy-michigan-senate-primary-may-not-get Read Erin's 2026 House analysis here: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/michigan-house/2026-michigan-house-analysis-democrats-fight-upper-hand

Most of the political attention these days is centered in D.C, but there's a pretty fascinating primary contest happening just a train ride north in New York City. The Democratic primary for mayor of the Big Apple features a crowded field of Democrats, including some well known names like former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who was forced to resign after multiple sexual harassment allegations against him in 2021, and some new names like New York State Representative Zoran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who has little experience politically but a knack for social media. He also happens to have the support of another young, well known New York City liberal, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. In some ways, this race is very New York City with storylines that could only happen there. In fact, the New York Times asked the all- important “what's your bagel order” question. But there are also shades of the tension in national Democratic politics between the more pragmatic and more progressive wings of the party happening in this race. Plus, Donald Trump, an outsized influence in and on the city, is a big factor here as well. To make sense of it all, I sat down with Nick Fandos, who's covering every twist and turn of this race for The New York Times. He's the city's politics and government reporter. Early voting has already started, and the primary is on Tuesday, June 24th. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, June 18th. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

President Trump's signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is crawling its way through Congress. Having passed the House by a single vote, the so-called BBB is in the Senate where various Republican factions - the fiscal hawks, the centrists, the populists - are divided over how to resolve their many competing priorities over the national debt, Medicaid, and tax cuts to name a few. What's driving these ideological differences among Senate and House Republicans? What role has Trump played and will he play in continuing to lobby Congress? And will the BBB move fast enough to be on President Trump’s desk by July fourth? (Spoiler alert: it will not.) Amy put all these questions to Leigh Ann Caldwell, chief Washington correspondent for Puck. A quick note: we recorded this conversation on Wednesday, June 4th, as the Elon Musk and President Trump breakup was beginning, but before it burst into the full view. And it appears the falling out has been driven, at least in part, over Musk's opposition to the Big Beautiful Bill. But as Amy has said, she doesn't believe this changes the calculus for Congressional Republicans. You can watch part of the conversation our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@thecookpoliticalreport Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

When we booked this episode with Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer several weeks back, our plan was to talk about the Democrats and their strategy and messaging around Trump - something Dan's been writing about for his Substack, Message Box. Should Democrats just focus on the economy? Should they raise alarm bells over deportations? How loudly and strongly should they push back against Trump? And we do discuss that, but as it turned out, there was a lot more to talk about with Dan. For one, as a former Obama senior adviser, Amy wanted to ask his thoughts on the new reporting coming out about Joe Biden's health and how his inner circle worked to conceal it. In addition to that, we received an important report from the data firm Catalist about 2024 voters, shedding more light on why Kamala Harris lost and Donald Trump won. As a fellow data nerd, I knew Dan would be ready to dive into it. We recorded this on Wednesday, May 21st. You can watch our entire conversation on our YouTube channel. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Rahm Emanuel has held many titles: Congressman from Illinois, DCCC Chairman, Chief of Staff to Barack Obama, Mayor of Chicago, and Ambassador to Japan under President Biden. These days, he doesn't have an official position at the moment. But that's not stopping him from giving some very pointed advice to Democrats on every possible platform: cable TV, political shows, podcasts, late night TV, and different political conferences. So how does Rahm Emanuel think Democrats should be responding to Trump 2.0? How does the party recover from 2024 and prepare for 2028? What does a successful midterm strategy look like in 2026? And given his own, let's say, active media schedule, what are his own plans for the future? He came on to talk to Amy about all that. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, May 14th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

You may know our guest today, Josh Holmes, as one of the hosts of the popular political podcast, Ruthless. For those of you who don't know, Ruthless is to the conservative media sphere as Pod Save America is to the liberal media ecosystem. But long before he started his podcasting gig, Amy knew Josh as a Republican political operative. He was chief of staff to Mitch McConnell and ran his 2014 re-election campaign. He also had a stint at the National Republican Senate Committee. He now runs the public affairs firm, Cavalry, and he's still actively giving advice to Republican candidates. Josh's two roles as a member of the new media and a seasoned Republican political hand gives him unique perspective into our current political era. This conversation spans a similar gamut from what advice he'd give to down ballot Republicans for the upcoming midterms to his thoughts on the Trump tariff endgame. Josh also talks about how candidates can best navigate the new media landscape. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, May 7th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

We are 100 days into the second Trump administration and there's no better person to help us understand what voters are making of these first months of Trump 2.0 than Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Kristen is a founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm. She's a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times and an on air political contributor at CNN. Quick disclaimer: we taped this conversation on Thursday, April 24th, before the flurry of 100 day polls were released this past weekend. That's why you won't hear us asking her about these polls. But the reason we wanted to have Kristen on in the first place was that we didn't want to get caught up in the immediate set of data. We wanted Kristen to do what she does best which is to filter the signal from the noise, present a 30,000 view of the political environment rather than focusing on the minutiae or just small movements in data. What we like about Kristen so much is that she's able to to toggle seamlessly between reading cross tabs but also probing voters in focus groups and really listening to what they are saying or not saying, and then explaining it to regular people in a way that is approachable but not condescending. That's why we were especially excited to talk with her about a presidency as complicated and unprecedented as Trump's. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Way back in the late 1990s, Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook had an idea to rank all 435 congressional districts by their partisanship - in other words, whether a district is more Republican or more Democratic. That way, we'd be able to see, at a quick glance, which members of Congress represented districts that were either slightly or strongly partisan. For example, is a certain Republican representative in a very solid Republican seat…. or in one that is only slightly red… or even one that was blue or blue leaning? Thus was born the Cook PVI, which stands for Partisan Voting Index. And since 1998, CPR has released a new addition every two years. This admittedly very geeky undertaking is also something we get really excited about because it cannot only tell us the partisanship of every district, but with more than 25 years of data, we can see how districts have shifted over the years. The person behind the Cook PVI and how it all works is David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report’s senior editor and elections analyst. We invited him on to explain what the Cook PVI is, how we calculate it, what we learned from it for 2025, and what it may tell us about elections in 2026. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, April 9th. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, In Brief: https://www.cookpolitical.com/in-brief-sign-up Read Dave’s Cook PVI analysis: https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/introducing-2025-cook-partisan-voting-index-slightly-depolarizing-election Learn more about The Cook Political Report: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

On the last podcast, Amy talked with Chauncey McLean, head of the Democratic super PAC Future Forward, about their media strategy for Kamala Harris and why things didn't work out as they had hoped. For this podcast, we turn to the ad strategy of the Trump campaign with John Brabender, the chief creative officer for the media company BrabenderCox. John was hired as Trump's ad consultant in early 2023 and worked with him throughout the entire campaign. He had incredible access to and input from Donald Trump about the ad making process and strategy, which he shares with us here in colorful detail - like what it's like to work on the Trump campaign and, specifically, to work with the president when putting these messages and ads together. We also wanted to talk to John about whether the lessons he learned working for Trump could translate to non-Trump candidates and Republican downballot candidates who have to run in the 2026 midterms. This conversation was recorded on Wednesday, April 2nd.

Back in the 2012 cycle, Chauncey McLean was a young staffer on the Obama campaign working in the newly developing field of data analytics. Six years later, McLean put those data science skills - and the ones he developed while working in the private sector testing ads for commercial products - to work as head of the Democratic super PAC, Future Forward. Most outside super PACs like these do an extensive amount of polling and survey work and bring in multiple outside advisers to help manage and produce campaign ads and other material. What makes Future Forward unique is the tremendous amount of survey data and ad testing that they do. Its team of data scientists surveyed millions of voters and tested thousands of ads with the goal of finding and airing the ads that moved the needle the most with the voters. During 2024, the group poured about $800 million dollars into ads that supported first Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris' campaign for president. At the end of the day, the Trump campaign's advertising and media strategy was more successful, particularly his ability to connect with younger men via social media platforms like podcasts and YouTube. As the Democratic party struggles to find its footing, we wanted to talk to Chauncey McLean about what he learned from Harris' loss and how Democratic groups like his are adapting to this fractured media environment going forward. We recorded the conversation on Wednesday, March 19th. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe.

We've been wanting to have Terrence Woodbury on the podcast for a long time. The reason is that he's a pollster who has done some amazing work with demographic groups that made a big difference in the presidential race last year, but also in previous cycles: Black voters, voters of color, and younger voters. And if many Democrats were surprised by the erosion in support among what they thought was a reliable Democratic base, Terrence has been observing this slide for years -- particularly among men of color, a group he calls the new swing voter. As a pollster to the Kamala Harris campaign, he and his company HIT Strategies, had a front row seat to how voters felt about Harris, Donald Trump, and the Democratic party as a whole. So we wanted to ask Terrance to discuss the results of the 2024 election, but also look forward to what he's hearing now from voters with Donald Trump in office and what he thinks the Democratic response should be to the Trump era. Terrence Woodbury is cofounder and president of HIT Strategies which is a public opinion research firm. We recorded this conversation on Wednesday, March 12. To learn more about The Cook Political Report go to: www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe

Last year, as March Madness kicked into gear, there was one athlete everyone seemed to be talking about: Caitlin Clark. The then University of Iowa guard was on her way to leading her team to the NCAA finals, selling out stadiums everywhere she went and creating an unprecedented level of excitement around women's basketball. This interest followed her to the WNBA when she signed with the Indiana Fever. Our guest, USA Today sports columnist Christine Brennan, is writing a book about Caitlin Clark called On Her Game, which tells the story of Clark's rise to become the most famous female team sport athlete in history. Christine has been a long-time chronicler and advocate for women in sports. She's also deeply interested in politics and has a keen understanding and appreciation for how sports and politics intersect. We wanted to have Christine on to help tell the story of how laws like Title IX helped pave the way for a phenom like Caitlin Clark. And we also wanted Christine to reflect on where we are today when it comes to politics, sports and gender. These three topics have always been intertwined in our culture, but the Trump era has brought it to a different level. In Trump’s first few weeks in office alone he appeared at the Super Bowl and signed an executive order banning transgender athletes from competing in women’s athletics. We also had Canadians booing the U.S. national anthem at an international hockey game in response to Trump's tariff threats as well as his references to annexing our northern neighbor. Christine Brennan is an award-winning national sports columnist for USA Today. She's a commentator for CNN, ABC News, and PBS NewsHour. Her book about Caitlin Clark is available right now for preorder on Amazon. It will be available wherever books are sold in early July.