The Perch Pod

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Ukraine’s counteroffensive last week was shockingly effective. Sim rejoins the show to explain what is happening on the ground…and to tease out the chances and attendant implications of a Russian defeat. Sim Tack is Military Analyst at Force Analysis and GEOINT Analyst at AllSource Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack. NYTimes article referenced here TimeStamps: 1:54-11:15 – What’s happening? 11:15-23:35 – Ukraine’s Strategy 23:35-28:04 – Europe’s Resolve 28:04-42:10 – Russia’s Options 42:10-end – Implications of Russia’s Defeat Cognitive Investments Link

ONE MORE MONTH OF PERCH POD BEFORE WE FINALLY, PERMANENTLY, IRREVOCABLY, IRRECOVERABLY, SWITCH TO THE COGNITIVE DISSIDENTS FEED. GO!!! SUBSCRIBE!!! NOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> LINK HERE Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere, breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin. Tiestamps: 1:37 - 20:20 - Cyberwarfare 20:20 - 28:00- 5G + China + Huawei 28:00 - 34:44 - Trust Networks 34:30 - 45:35 - Has there every been a full-on cyber war? 45:35 - End - Let's talk bitcoin!

Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more. John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue, a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, and technology. We've included a link because you should go subscribe to it. TimeStamps: 2:30-19:37 – Australia/China relations 19:37-25:20 – Australia/New Zealand relations 25:20-39:32 – The South Pacific 39:32-46:30 – Indonesia 46:30-57:57 – Latin America/France/Antarctica  57:59-1:05:30 – Taiwan 1:05:30 – International Intrigue Cognitive Investments Link

Check out the Cognitive Dissidents Pod here!! Subscribe before it's too late!! How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China). Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk aggregation. Additionally, he is the architect and a portfolio manager for the Weiss Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund (Ticker: WEISX).  Weiss Morning Seeds: https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0 Weiss Insights: https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0 Weiss Podcast Page: https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0 Timestamps: 2:20-14:42 – Inflation/Deflation 14:42-35:50 – Tech/longevity 35:50-45:38 – mRNA 45:38-1:03:30 – Energy 1:03:00 – end – China

Peter Mayer discusses the history the Colorado River Basin - and why it's a canary in the coal mine for the waves of water issues already sweeping the globe. Water access conflicts are going to escalate both nationally and internationally as the globe heats and our atmosphere's composition fluctuates. Peter and Jacob dive into the conflicts already occurring, ( eg. the Georgia vs. Florida water wars), the future of agriculture, and how we conserve water for posterity. Peter is a professional engineer and urban water expert and the Principal and Founder of Water Demand Management. For more than 25 years, his work has focused on urban water management, water use patterns, assessing the impact of water rate structures and metering, evaluating water conservation measures and programs, forecasting future demand with and without conservation, preparing water conservation plans and conducting water supply scenario analysis.  Link to Lake Mead pics: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150111/lake-mead-keeps-dropping Peter’s website: https://www.waterdm.com/ TimeStamps 2:34-30:30 – Colorado River Basin 30:30-42:30 – Georgia v. Florida on water. (If I could have this on in the background during this section I would.) 42:30-50:30 – Agriculture 50:30 – Pete’s past Cognitive Investments Link

Subscribe to The Cognitive Dissidents Podcast here to avoid missing out on episode after August! Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. Timestamps 3:00-25:13: Mackinder and the Arctic 25:13-34:30: The Art of the Net Assessment 34:30-44:30: The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come 44:30-56:54: Will China invade Taiwan? 56:54-end: Around the world: Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil, and more

Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. Timestamps: 2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy 14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas 21:36-35:54 – Europe 35:54-42:00 – China 42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia 50:52-59:11 – India 59:11-1:10:11 – Food 1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds 1:16:31- end: Basketball

Sim Tack revisits the Ukraine-Russia conflict with Jacob to talk about the war as it drags into its later stages. Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack Timestamps 4:30-16:45 – Russia-Ukraine War Update 16:45-19:45 – Grain tangent 19:45-27:15 – Who is winning? How important is Western support? 27:15-36:30 – Russia’s military capacity 36:30-48:45 – The future of NATO 48:45-56:45 – Talking about Turkey 56:45-end – Deep strikes  Questions? Comments? Reach out at: jacob@perchperspectives.com Website: https://perchperspectives.com

Jacob brings on special guest Dr. Jacek Bartosiak to discuss the Polish perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War, the implications of Kaliningrad being sealed off from Russia, and much more. Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future. He is the author of best-selling books including “Pacyfik i Eurazja. O Wojnie” (Pacific and Eurasia. On War” (2016), which focuses on the ongoing great power competition in Eurasia and the possible war in the Western Pacific. He is also the author of ”Rzeczpospolita między Lądem a Morzem. O wojnie i pokoju.” (Poland and Intermarium between the Land and the Sea Powers – (2018), which deals with the geostrategic reality Poland and Europe face in the era of great power competition and is an in-depth study of the Central Eastern European theatre of war and modern warfare. Timestamps: 3:00-11:30: Kaliningrad 11:30-21:15: A Polish view of the world 21:15-28:30: The Suwałki Corridor 28:30-39:30: What happens next? 39:30-45:00: Ukraine and the new balance of power in Europe 45:00-End Turkey Questions? Comments? Reach out at: jacob@perchperspectives.com Website: https://perchperspectives.com

Kamran Bokhari of the New Lines Institute dives deep into the turbulence brewing in Eurasia, with the war in Ukraine destabilizing some already tenuous relationships with Russia, and the US's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and leave the Taliban in charge - The US, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran are all pushing for a foothold in the region, with Kazakhstan at the center of this tug-of-war. Kamran Bokhari is Director of Analytical Development at the New Lines Institute. You can find his article on Kazakhstan here. Timestamps: 0:00-18:00 – Kazakhstan 18:00-36:24 – Pakistan 36:24-48:30 – Iran 48:30-end: Russia/Turkey Questions? Comments? Reach out at: jacob@perchperspectives.com Website: https://perchperspectives.com

Crossover episode! Cognitive Dissidents comes to the Perch Pod. Jacob and Rob sit down together (in person!) to talk about the between geopolitics and investing, why it makes sense to combine the two, and what they've learned in their time using them together. ~Imporant~ We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here! Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Marko Papic hops on the Perch Pod (transitioning to Cognitive Dissidents Pod) to talk Biden's new missteps, India, Russia, and SO much more. Marko is a partner and strategist at the Clocktower Group, as you've probably heard us say before - make sure to reach out to us with your thoughts, reactions, or insights! 1:15-21:15: Taiwan/Latin America 21:15-41:15: Russia/Ukraine 41:15-50:05: Europe 50:05-end: Basketball ~Imporant~ We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here! Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Chase Taylor joins Jacob for a SECOND time, discussing Inflation, Corn, Energy, and, of course, Turkey. Enjoy the conversation! ~Imporant~ We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here! Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Jacob and Brian O'Toole of the Atlantic Council chat about out the sanctions as a geopolitical weapon. Brian is a Former OFAC senior advisor and IC analyst, and a current nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. His Twitter handle is @brianoftoole ~Imporant~ We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here! Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Andrey Sushentsov, long-time friend of Jacob's and Russia-based geopolitical analyst, joins the Perch Pod to discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Jacob and Andrey engage in a thought-provoking conversation about Russian perspective on the conflict; one we don't get to hear very often. Andrey is, notably, the Dean of the School of International Relations at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, and a previous fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focused on Russian policy toward Ukraine and the future of Russian-Ukrainian interdependence. Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Elohim Monard joins us from Peru to discuss the growing instability in the South American country. The two discuss the emerging civil unrest in response to soaring inflation and Pedro Castillo's polarizing report card as Peru plunges into a state of emergency. Link to Civiclass here. Download the transcript here. Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Neil Townsend hops back into the fray with Jacob to discuss the future of global food uncertainty, agricultural production, and fertilizer input prices in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Neil is, of course, Chief Market Analyst at FarmLink Marketing Solutions. Link to FarmLink and GrainFox here. Download the transcript here. Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/

Sim Tack, Military and Geospatial Intelligence analyst, joins Jacob for an update on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sim explains the Russian assault in strategic terms, going through each line of contact to explain the how and why of the Ukrainian front. Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. Sim’s twitter: https://twitter.com/SimTack Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com Subscribe to the Perch Pod Newsletter here. Socials: Twitter: @PerchSpectives LinkedIn: Perch Perspectives Website: https://perchperspectives.com/ Sim’s twitter: https://twitter.com/SimTack