The Popular Investor

Episode 7 of the Popular Investor podcast looks at the changing landscape of corporate and personal behaviors and the early indications of new emerging investment trends related to the stock market or business.  Factoring in the current corporate infrastructure & demographics a full-scale trend change is likely to take at least 5 years into 2025 (teaching an old dog new tricks is difficult, we might need to wait until Boomers have left the labor markets). Fiscal stimulus has set a firecracker off in financial markets and some of these trends are well and truly priced in for the coming years.  Within the update, I do mention some stocks, this is not investment advice and intended as financial education only.  Predictions:  1. Work from anyway (not straight forward).  2. Commercial real estate could become farms.  3. Residential real estate drops on aggregate with suburban / rural properties fairing better off.  4. Heightened inflation caused by the expansion of money and a weaker currency. .

In this episode, we take a contrarian look at one of the world's most consumed commodities and look to the future to determine the directional bias of the asset. There are 3 main factors that drive this view:  1. {Macro Long Term} Higher inflation will steepen long duration yields, thus making capital a little more scarce and tightening production over time.  2. {Granular, Near Term} Coronavirus caused large disparities between supply and demand thus crashing the price. This led to overdue shut-ins and supply-side readjustments from OPEC+.  3. {Speculative, Near Term} Domestic travel & Carnival Cruise conference call suggests that 2021 demand is grossly underestimated. 

A thematic investment approach offers longevity and outperformance over a number of years. A major focus for investors and politicians has been climate change and a need to reduce carbon emissions.  Since the March lows, we have seen a significant rally across Electric Vehicle OEMs with prominent figures coming out to justify these prices.  Is it Telsa against the world? Are there more opportunities in EV OEMs? Or is it time to focus on a new industry that falls under the sale climate change theme?   

Despite the bullish overtone and sentiments, there are causes for concern near term in what promises to be a longer-term bull market. This episode outlies 4 near term risks for equities. 

During each market crisis, the narrative consists of "nobody saw it coming", that's nonsense. The sign posts are always clear well in advance whether or not we know the intricate details such as lockdown earlier in 2020.  This episode takes the listener on a journey through the 1987 & 2008 market crashes and compares them to 2020. Each event has one consistent theme running through, that liquidity is the driver of asset prices. 

This episode explores the David versus Goliath battle between Wall St and the retail trader, why traders lose money is a very simple game, and the steps/changes needed to sharpen your returns. 

During this episode, we explore the consequences of a new game, where interest rates rise at a secular level and what that means for savers and creditors.